Modeling the prescription opioid epidemic

DOI10.1007/S11538-019-00605-0zbMATH Open1417.92170arXiv1711.03658OpenAlexW3105777543WikidataQ90221033 ScholiaQ90221033MaRDI QIDQ2002111FDOQ2002111

Leigh B. Pearcy, W. Christopher Strickland, Nicholas A. Battista

Publication date: 11 July 2019

Published in: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Opioid addiction has become a global epidemic and a national health crisis in recent years, with the number of opioid overdose fatalities steadily increasing since the 1990s. In contrast to the dynamics of a typical illicit drug or disease epidemic, opioid addiction has its roots in legal, prescription medication - a fact which greatly increases the exposed population and provides additional drug accessibility for addicts. In this paper, we present a mathematical model for prescription drug addiction and treatment with parameters and validation based on data from the opioid epidemic. Key dynamics considered include addiction through prescription, addiction from illicit sources, and treatment. Through mathematical analysis, we show that no addiction-free equilibrium can exist without stringent control over how opioids are administered and prescribed, effectively transforming the dynamics of the opioid epidemic into those found in a purely illicit drug model. Numerical sensitivity analysis suggests that relatively low states of endemic addiction can be obtained by primarily focusing on medical prevention followed by aggressive treatment of remaining cases - even when the probability of relapse from treatment remains high. Further empirical study focused on understanding the rate of illicit drug dependence versus overdose risk, along with the current and changing rates of opioid prescription and treatment, would shed significant light on optimal control efforts and feasible outcomes for this epidemic and drug epidemics in general.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03658

zbMATH Keywords

dynamical systemsepidemiologycompartmental modelmathematical biologypopulation biologyprescription drug addiction

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

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Cited In (14)

• Modeling opioid abuse: a case study of the opioid crisis in New England
• Analysis of Prescription Drug Utilization with Beta Regression Models
• Structural instability and linear allocation control in generalized models of substance use disorder
• Modeling the dynamics of heroin and illicit opioid use disorder, treatment, and recovery
• Research and prediction of opioid crisis based on BP neural network and Markov chain
• Optimal control of a multi-scale HIV-opioid model
• Optimal control of diffusion processes pertaining to an opioid epidemic dynamical model with random perturbations
• A data-driven mathematical model of the heroin and fentanyl epidemic in Tennessee
• The Vicodin abuse problem: a mathematical approach
• Immuno-epidemiological co-affection model of HIV infection and opioid addiction
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• A mathematical model of population dynamics for the internet gaming addiction
• A procedure for deriving new ODE models: Using the generalized linear chain trick to incorporate phase-type distributed delay and dwell time assumptions

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