What the reproductive number R₀ can and cannot tell us about COVID-19 dynamics

DOI10.1016/J.TPB.2020.12.003MaRDI QIDQ2054863zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Clara L. Shaw, David A. Kennedy

Publication date 3 December 2021

Published in Theoretical Population Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14676

zbMATH Keywords

\(\mathcal{R}_0\)COVID-19epidemic sizeheterogeneityinterventionsSARS-CoV-2

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions. However, often ignored complexities have generated confusion around use of the metric. This is particularly apparent with the emergent pandemic virus SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. We address some of these misconceptions, namely, how R changes over time, varies over space, and relates to epidemic size by referencing the mathematical definition of R and examples from the current pandemic. We hope that a better appreciation of the uses, nuances, and limitations of R facilitates a better understanding of epidemic spread, epidemic severity, and the effects of interventions in the context of SARS-CoV-2.

Recommendations

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Cites work

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Cited in

(10)

• Editorial. Mathematical epidemiology for a later age
• Testing and isolation efficacy: insights from a simple epidemic model
• The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions
• The discounted reproductive number for epidemiology
• Estimating the reproductive number \(R_0\) of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and eight European countries and implications for vaccination
• The effective reproduction number as a prelude to statistical estimation of time-dependent epidemic trends
• Chasing R₀: understanding the effects of population dynamics on the basic reproduction number
• The importance of quarantine: modelling the COVID-19 testing process
• Notes on the theory and use of mathematical models for epidemics
• Heterogeneity in and correlation between host transmissibility and susceptibility can greatly impact epidemic dynamics

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• EpiEstim

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