What the reproductive number R₀ can and cannot tell us about COVID-19 dynamics
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Publication:2054863
DOI10.1016/J.TPB.2020.12.003zbMATH Open1478.92224arXiv2006.14676OpenAlexW3119166037WikidataQ104799890 ScholiaQ104799890MaRDI QIDQ2054863FDOQ2054863
Authors: Clara L. Shaw, David A. Kennedy 
Publication date: 3 December 2021
Published in: Theoretical Population Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions. However, often ignored complexities have generated confusion around use of the metric. This is particularly apparent with the emergent pandemic virus SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. We address some of these misconceptions, namely, how R changes over time, varies over space, and relates to epidemic size by referencing the mathematical definition of R and examples from the current pandemic. We hope that a better appreciation of the uses, nuances, and limitations of R facilitates a better understanding of epidemic spread, epidemic severity, and the effects of interventions in the context of SARS-CoV-2.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14676
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Cited In (9)
- The discounted reproductive number for epidemiology
- The importance of quarantine: modelling the COVID-19 testing process
- Chasing \(R_0\): understanding the effects of population dynamics on the basic reproduction number
- The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions
- Testing and isolation efficacy: insights from a simple epidemic model
- The effective reproduction number as a prelude to statistical estimation of time-dependent epidemic trends
- Notes on the theory and use of mathematical models for epidemics
- Estimating the reproductive number \(R_0\) of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and eight European countries and implications for vaccination
- Editorial. Mathematical epidemiology for a later age
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