Fitting stochastic predator-prey models using both population density and kill rate data
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Publication:2054869
DOI10.1016/J.TPB.2021.01.003zbMATH Open1478.92148arXiv1904.02145OpenAlexW2928329963WikidataQ112818481 ScholiaQ112818481MaRDI QIDQ2054869FDOQ2054869
Authors: Frédéric Barraquand, O. Gimenez 
Publication date: 3 December 2021
Published in: Theoretical Population Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: Most mechanistic predator-prey modelling has involved either parameterization from process rate data or inverse modelling. Here, we take a median road: we aim at identifying the potential benefits of combining datasets, when both population growth and predation processes are viewed as stochastic. We fit a discrete-time, stochastic predator-prey model of the Leslie type to simulated time series of densities and kill rate data. Our model has both environmental stochasticity in the growth rates and interaction stochasticity, i.e., a stochastic functional response. We examine what the kill rate data brings to the quality of the estimates, and whether estimation is possible (for various time series lengths) solely with time series of population counts or biomass data. Both Bayesian and frequentist estimation are performed, providing multiple ways to check model identifiability. The Fisher Information Matrix suggests that models with and without kill rate data are all identifiable, although correlations remain between parameters that belong to the same functional form. However, our results show that if the attractor is a fixed point in the absence of stochasticity, identifying parameters in practice requires kill rate data as a complement to the time series of population densities, due to the relatively flat likelihood. Only noisy limit cycle attractors can be identified directly from population count data (as in inverse modelling), although even in this case, adding kill rate data - including in small amounts - can make the estimates much more precise. Overall, we show that under process stochasticity in interaction rates, interaction data might be essential to obtain identifiable dynamical models for multiple species. These results may extend to other biotic interactions than predation, for which similar models combining interaction rates and population counts could be developed.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.02145
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Cited In (6)
- A Rao-blackwellized particle filter for joint parameter estimation and biomass tracking in a stochastic predator-prey system
- No sensitivity to functional forms in the Rosenzweig-MacArthur model with strong environmental stochasticity
- Bayesian inference for functional response in a stochastic predator-prey system
- Integrated population models: achieving their potential
- Estimating the parameters of a Poisson process model for predator-prey interactions
- Letter to the Editor—Flood's Assignment Model for Small Kill Levels
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