Parameter estimation in branching processes with almost sure extinction

DOI10.3150/21-BEJ1332zbMATH Open1481.60175OpenAlexW3212073942WikidataQ114122450 ScholiaQ114122450MaRDI QIDQ2073201FDOQ2073201

Authors Peter Braunsteins, Sophie Hautphenne, Carmen Minuesa 

Publication date 1 February 2022

Published in Bernoulli (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.09695

zbMATH Keywords

inferencebranching processcarrying capacity\(Q\)-processalmost sure extinctionpopulation-size-dependence

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.) (60J80)

Abstract: We consider population-size-dependent branching processes (PSDBPs) which eventually become extinct with probability one. For these processes, we derive maximum likelihood estimators for the mean number of offspring born to individuals when the current population size is $zgeq1$. As is standard in branching process theory, an asymptotic analysis of the estimators requires us to condition on non-extinction up to a finite generation $n$ and let $noinfty$; however, because the processes become extinct with probability one, we are able to demonstrate that our estimators do not satisfy the classical consistency property ($C$-consistency). This leads us to define the concept of $Q$-consistency, and we prove that our estimators are $Q$-consistent and asymptotically normal. To investigate the circumstances in which a $C$-consistent estimator is preferable to a $Q$-consistent estimator, we then provide two $C$-consistent estimators for subcritical Galton-Watson branching processes. Our results rely on a combination of linear operator theory, coupling arguments, and martingale methods.

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Cited in

(7)

• Estimation in a Continuous State Space Branching Process
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• Estimation of the criticality parameters of branching processes by the Monte Carlo method
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