Predicting competitions by combining conditional logistic regression and subjective Bayes: an Academy Awards case study

DOI10.1214/21-AOAS1464MaRDI QIDQ2078331zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Christopher T. Franck, Christopher E. Wilson

Publication date 28 February 2022

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.00878

zbMATH Keywords

conditional logistic regressionprior elicitationsubjective BayesAcademy Awards

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Generalized linear models (logistic models) (62J12) Applications of statistics (62P99)

Abstract: Predicting the outcome of elections, sporting events, entertainment awards, and other competitions has long captured the human imagination. Such prediction is growing in sophistication in these areas, especially in the rapidly growing field of data-driven journalism intended for a general audience as the availability of historical information rapidly balloons. Providing statistical methodology to probabilistically predict competition outcomes faces two main challenges. First, a suitably general modeling approach is necessary to assign probabilities to competitors. Second, the modeling framework must be able to accommodate expert opinion, which is usually available but difficult to fully encapsulate in typical data sets. We overcome these challenges with a combined conditional logistic regression/subjective Bayes approach. To illustrate the method, we re-analyze data from a recent Time.com piece in which the authors attempted to predict the 2019 Best Picture Academy Award winner using standard logistic regression. Towards engaging and educating a broad readership, we discuss strategies to deploy the proposed method via an online application.

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Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6107964 (Why is no real title available?)
• Bayes Factors
• Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. (with comments and a rejoinder).
• Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States
• Estimating the dimension of a model
• Mixtures of \(g\)-priors in generalized linear models
• Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities
• Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions (with discussion)

Cited in

(2)

• A new methodology for generating and combining statistical forecasting models to enhance competitive event prediction
• Identifying winners of competitive events: a SVM-based classification model for horserace prediction

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• glmnet

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