Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities
DOI10.1002/0470033312zbMATH Open1269.62009OpenAlexW2065637266MaRDI QIDQ5484944FDOQ5484944
J. Richard Eiser, Paul H. Garthwaite, Anthony O'Hagan, David J. Jenkinson, Tim Rakow, Jeremy E. Oakley, A. Daneshkhah, Caitlin E. Buck
Publication date: 23 August 2006
Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/0470033312
Recommendations
Applications of statistics (62Pxx) Software, source code, etc. for problems pertaining to statistics (62-04) Research exposition (monographs, survey articles) pertaining to statistics (62-02)
Cited In (only showing first 100 items - show all)
- Graphical prior elicitation in univariate models
- Adversarial risk analysis: an overview
- On estimating the distribution of data envelopment analysis efficiency scores: an application to nursing homes’ care planning process
- Approximate large-scale Bayesian spatial modeling with application to quantitative magnetic resonance imaging
- Title not available (Why is that?)
- Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis in medicine
- Bayesian gamma processes for optimizing condition-based maintenance under uncertainty
- DISPLAYING UNCERTAIN INFORMATION ABOUT PROBABILITY: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE
- On the Robustness of Bayesian Modelling of Location and Scale Structures Using Heavy-Tailed Distributions
- Expert Knowledge Elicitation: Subjective but Scientific
- Specifying prior distributions in reliability applications
- Combining probabilistic forecasts of intermittent demand
- Functional ANOVA with Multiple Distributions: Implications for the Sensitivity Analysis of Computer Experiments
- Expert knowledge elicitation using item response theory
- Correlated defaults, temporal correlation, expert information and predictability of default rates
- Data envelopment analysis in the presence of measurement error: case study from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators®(NDNQI®)
- An Adversarial Risk Analysis Framework for Batch Acceptance Problems
- Optimal experimental design: formulations and computations
- Aggregating predictions from experts: a review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications
- Heterogeneous data analysis using a mixture of Laplace models with conjugate priors
- Network routing for insurgency: An adversarial risk analysis framework
- Bayesian dynamic borrowing of historical information with applications to the analysis of large-scale assessments
- Prioritizing covariates in the planning of future studies in the meta-analytic framework
- Using History Matching for Prior Choice
- A general method for elicitation, imputation, and sensitivity analysis for incomplete repeated binary data
- Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions
- Probability bound analysis: a novel approach for quantifying parameter uncertainty in decision-analytic modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis
- Active learning for efficiently training emulators of computationally expensive mathematical models
- Quantifying conditional probability tables in Bayesian networks: Bayesian regression for scenario-based encoding of elicited expert assessments on feral pig habitat
- An In-Depth Perspective on the Classical Model
- Recent Advances in the Elicitation of Uncertainty Distributions from Experts for Multinomial Probabilities
- A decision support system for liability in civil litigation: a case study from an insurance company
- Iterative importance sampling with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in robust Bayesian analysis
- Power Laws Distributions in Objective Priors
- Calibrated Bayes factors under flexible priors
- Combining chains of Bayesian models with Markov melding
- A nearly optimal auction for an uninformed seller
- ON THE AGGREGATION OF EXPERTS' INFORMATION IN BONUS–MALUS SYSTEMS
- The phoropter method: a stochastic graphical procedure for prior elicitation in univariate data models
- Eliciting prior distributions for extra parameters in some generalized linear models
- A mixed hidden Markov model for multivariate monotone disease processes in the presence of measurement errors
- On global robustness of an adversarial risk analysis solution
- Title not available (Why is that?)
- Bayesian restricted likelihood methods: conditioning on insufficient statistics in Bayesian regression (with discussion)
- Informative priors for the consensus ranking in the Bayesian Mallows model
- Automated Preference Elicitation for Decision Making
- Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review
- The transformed inverse Gaussian process as an age- and state-dependent degradation model
- Probabilistic optimization of engineering system with prescribed target design in a reduced parameter space
- Multifidelity probability estimation via fusion of estimators
- Elicitation of multivariate prior distributions: a nonparametric Bayesian approach
- Joining and splitting models with Markov melding
- Reified Bayesian modelling and inference for physical systems
- Probabilistic aggregation of uncertain geological resources
- Reliability modelling and assessment of a heterogeneously repaired system with partially relevant recurrence data
- Adaptive prior weighting in generalized regression
- Specification of informative prior distributions for multinomial models using vine copulas
- Easy and optimal queries to reduce set uncertainty
- Nuclear emergency decision support: a behavioural OR perspective
- Book review of: R. Levy and R. J. Mislevy, Bayesian psychometric modeling
- Functional Uniform Priors for Nonlinear Modeling
- Forecast aggregation via recalibration
- Exact posterior computation for the binomial-Kumaraswamy model
- Modeling uncertainty of expert elicitation for use in risk-based optimization
- Optimizing airline passenger prescreening systems with Bayesian decision models
- A two-step Bayesian approach for propensity score analysis: simulations and case study
- Neutral noninformative and informative conjugate beta and gamma prior distributions
- Eliciting vague but proper maximal entropy priors in Bayesian experiments
- A numerically stable algorithm for integrating Bayesian models using Markov melding
- Eliciting expert judgements about a set of proportions
- Regularized Aggregation of One-Off Probability Predictions
- Probabilistic fuzzy logic modeling: quantifying uncertainty of mineral prospectivity models using Monte Carlo simulations
- Multithreat multisite protection: a security case study
- Theory and methods for random differential equations: a survey
- Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: a systematic literature review and future research directions
- Inferring probability densities from expert opinion
- Bayesian estimation for a parametric Markov renewal model applied to seismic data
- Reconstructing Past Populations With Uncertainty From Fragmentary Data
- A Bayesian way of monitoring the linear profiles using CUSUM control charts
- Optimal design of priors constrained by external predictors
- Scoring in context
- A Bayesian hierarchical model for criminal investigations
- Calibrating expert assessments using hierarchical Gaussian process models
- Nonstandard conditionally specified models for nonignorable missing data
- Does probability weighting matter in probability elicitation?
- Supplier quality improvement: the value of information under uncertainty
- A Bayesian approach to aggregate experts' initial information
- Choosing a Strictly Proper Scoring Rule
- Predicting competitions by combining conditional logistic regression and subjective Bayes: an Academy Awards case study
- Knowledge elicitation via sequential probabilistic inference for high-dimensional prediction
- Model-based preference quantification
- Generalized isotonic conditional random fields
- Prior distribution elicitation for generalized linear and piecewise-linear models
- Subjective elicitation of hyperparameters of a conjugate Dirichlet prior and the corresponding Bayes analysis
- Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities
- Defense and security planning under resource uncertainty and multi‐period commitments
- Eliciting and analyzing expert judgement. A practical guide
- Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling
- Bayesian modelling of dependence between experts: some comparisons with Cooke's classical model
- Characteristics of a process for subjective probability elicitation
This page was built for publication: Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities
Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q5484944)