The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets

DOI10.1016/J.JECONOM.2020.07.016MaRDI QIDQ2658804zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Min Dai, Yanwei Jia, Steven Kou

Publication date 24 March 2021

Published in Journal of Econometrics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.016

zbMATH Keywords

information aggregationprediction marketspublic opinion polls

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to economics (62P20)

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Cites work

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• Discrete/Continuous Models of Consumer Demand
• Expected information as ecpected utility
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• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3965301 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3793969 (Why is no real title available?)
• Incentive-compatible surveys via posterior probabilities
• Measuring Expectations
• Naturally Occurring Preferences and Exogenous Laboratory Experiments: A Case Study of Risk Aversion
• Note on the Consistency of the Maximum Likelihood Estimate
• Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• Structural vs. atheoretic approaches to econometrics
• Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Cited in

(8)

• The wisdom of crowds and transfer market values
• Prediction markets, Bayesian priors, and clinical trials
• Partial information framework: model-based aggregation of estimates from diverse information sources
• Editorial for the special issue on financial econometrics in the age of the digital economy
• Dynamics of a binary option market with exogenous information and price sensitivity
• Naive traders and mispricing in prediction markets
• Far from the madding crowd: collective wisdom in prediction markets
• Decentralized prediction markets and sports books

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