A fresh look at the ``hot hand paradox

DOI10.1016/J.PHYSD.2022.133551MaRDI QIDQ2104210zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors S. Redner

Publication date 9 December 2022

Published in Physica D (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.09707

zbMATH Keywords

backward Kolmogorov equationfirst-passagehot handwaiting time

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Foundations of probability theory (60A99)

Abstract: We use the backward Kolmogorov equation approach to understand the apparently paradoxical feature that the mean waiting time to encounter distinct fixed-length sequences of heads and tails upon repeated fair coin flips can be different. For sequences of length 2, the mean time until the sequence HH (heads-heads) appears equals 6, while the waiting time for the sequence HT (heads-tails) equals 4. We give complete results for the waiting times of sequences of lengths 3, 4, and 5; the extension to longer sequences is straightforward (albeit more tedious). We also derive the moment generating functions, from which any moment of the mean waiting time for specific sequences can be found. Finally, we compute the mean waiting times $T_{2nmH}$ for $2n$ heads in a row and $T_{nm(HT)}$ for $n$ alternating heads and tails. For large $n$, $T_{2nmH}sim3T_{nm(HT)}$. Thus distinct sequences of coin flips of the same length can have very different mean waiting times.

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Cites work

• A guide to first-passage processes
• Gambler's ruin? Some aspects of coin tossing
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 192942 (Why is no real title available?)
• Surprised by the hot hand fallacy? A truth in the law of small numbers
• The gambler's and hot-hand fallacies: theory and applications
• The perception of randomness
• Über die analytischen Methoden in der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung

Cited in

(1)

• On Overwhelming Numerical Evidence in the Settling of Kinney’s Waiting-Time Conjecture

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