Periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics and vaccination campaign
From MaRDI portal
Publication:2113040
DOI10.1016/J.CHAOS.2022.112216zbMATH Open1504.92116arXiv2201.09677OpenAlexW4280527158MaRDI QIDQ2113040FDOQ2113040
Authors: Gaetano Campi, Antonio Bianconi 
Publication date: 12 January 2023
Published in: Chaos, Solitons and Fractals (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: While understanding of periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics would aid to combat the pandemics, quantitative analysis of data over a two years period from the outbreak, is lacking. The complexity of Covid-19 recurrent waves is related with the concurrent role of i) the containment measures enforced to mitigate the epidemics spreading ii) the rate of viral gene mutations, and iii) the variable immune response of the host implemented by vaccination. This work focuses on the effect of massive vaccination and gene variants on the recurrent waves in a representative case of countries enforcing mitigation and vaccination strategy. The spreading rate is measured by the ratio between the reproductive number Rt(t) and the doubling time Td(t) called RIC-index and the daily fatalities number. The dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemics has been studied by wavelet analysis and represented by a non-linear helicoid vortex in a 3D space where both RIC-index and fatalities change with time. The onset of periodic recurrent waves has been identified by the transition from convergent to divergent trajectories on the helicoid vortex. We report a main period of recurrent waves of 120 days and the elongation of this period after the vaccination campaign
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.09677
Cites Work
- Dispersal and pattern formation in a discrete-time predator-prey model
- Title not available (Why is that?)
- Front propagation into unstable states
- Pattern formation outside of equilibrium
- A practical method for calculating largest Lyapunov exponents from small data sets
- Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France
- Commentary on Ferguson, et al., ``Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
- Multilayer networks. Structure and function
- Traveling waves in delayed reaction-diffusion equations in biology
- Percolation and the pandemic
- How to reduce epidemic peaks keeping under control the time-span of the epidemic
- Generalized Morse Wavelets as a Superfamily of Analytic Wavelets
- Element analysis: a wavelet-based method for analysing time-localized events in noisy time series
This page was built for publication: Periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics and vaccination campaign
Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2113040)
