How to reduce epidemic peaks keeping under control the time-span of the epidemic

DOI10.1016/J.CHAOS.2020.109940MaRDI QIDQ2122885zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Mariano Cadoni

Publication date 7 April 2022

Published in Chaos, Solitons and Fractals (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.02189

zbMATH Keywords

containmentepidemic dynamics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: One of the main challenges of the measures against the COVID-19 epidemic is to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak without increasing without control its timescale. We investigate this problem using the SIR model for the epidemic dynamics, for which reduction of the epidemic peak $I_P$ can be achieved only at the price of increasing the time $t_P$ of its occurrence and its entire time-span $t_E$. By means of a time reparametrization we linearize the equations for the SIR dynamics. This allows us to solve exactly the dynamics in the time domain and to derive the scaling behaviour of the size, the timescale and the speed of the epidemics, by reducing the infection rate $alpha$ and by increasing the removal rate $$ by a factor of $lambda$. We show that for a given value of the size ($I_P$, the total, $I_E$ and average $hat{I}_P$ number of infected), its occurrence time $t_P$ and entire time-span $t_E$ can be reduced by a factor $1/lambda$ if the reduction of $I$ is achieved by increasing the removal rate instead of reducing the infection rate. Thus, epidemic containment measures based on tracing, early detection followed by prompt isolation of infected individuals are more efficient than those based on social distancing. We apply our results to the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Italy. We show that the peak time $t_P$ and the entire time span $t_E$ could have been reduced by a factor $0.9le1/lambdale0.34$ with containment measures focused on increasing $$ instead of reducing $alpha$.

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Cited in

(19)

• Explicit formulae for the peak time of an epidemic from the SIR model
• Periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics and vaccination campaign
• Social distancing versus early detection and contacts tracing in epidemic management
• Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework
• A simple SIR model with a large set of asymptomatic infectives
• Dynamics of partially mitigated multi-phasic epidemics at low susceptible depletion: phases of COVID-19 control in Italy as case study
• Impacts of social distancing on the spread of infectious diseases with asymptomatic infection: a mathematical model
• Basic reproduction number for the SIR epidemic in degree correlated networks
• Dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic at constant and time-dependent contact rates
• Synchronization in epidemic growth and the impossibility of selective containment
• Analytical solution of the SIR-model for the temporal evolution of epidemics. Part A: time-independent reproduction factor
• Final epidemic size of a two-community SIR model with asymmetric coupling
• Impact of contact heterogeneity on initial growth behavior of an epidemic: complex network-based approach
• A highly accurate peak time formula of epidemic outbreak from the SIR model
• Final epidemic size and critical times for susceptible-infectious-recovered models with a generalized contact rate
• Poisson structures and dynamics of SIR models
• Final size of an SIR epidemic in heterogeneous networks through local and global propagations
• Dynamic analysis and optimal control of an SIAQR transmission model with asymptomatic infection and isolation
• Hyper-exponential growth in an epidemic model: some explicit solutions and their significance

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