A simple SIR model with a large set of asymptomatic infectives
From MaRDI portal
Publication:2167450
Abstract: There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the presence of asymptomatic, or however undetected, infective, and the substantially long time these spend being infective and not isolated. We discuss how a SIR-based prediction of the epidemic course based on early data but not taking into account the presence of a large set of asymptomatic infectives would give wrong estimate of very relevant quantities such as the need of hospital beds, the time to the epidemic peak, and the number of people which are left untouched by the first wave and thus in danger in case of a second epidemic wave. In the second part of the note, we apply our model to the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy. We obtain a good agreement with epidemiological data; according to the best fit of epidemiological data in terms of this model, only 10% of infectives in Italy is symptomatic.
Recommendations
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3900581
- An SIR model with viral load-dependent transmission
- Asymptotic theory of an infectious disease model
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4043669
- The asymptotic behavior of a stochastic SIR epidemic model
- A {\textit{SIR}} epidemic model with incubation period
- Asymptotic behavior for an SIS epidemic model and its approximation
- Models for the simple epidemic
- SIR model of epidemic spread with accumulated exposure
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6771066
Cites work
- Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics. III.—Further studies of the problem of endemicity
- How to reduce epidemic peaks keeping under control the time-span of the epidemic
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 2166309 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1915402 (Why is no real title available?)
- Immuno-epidemiological model of two-stage epidemic growth
- Mathematical biology. Vol. 1: An introduction.
- On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio \(R_ 0\) in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations
- Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework
- Social distancing versus early detection and contacts tracing in epidemic management
- The mathematics of infectious diseases
Cited in
(20)- A closer look at the spreaders of COVID-19 in Wisconsin and the US
- Visualizing the invisible: the effect of asymptomatic transmission on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19
- Kinetic models for epidemic dynamics with social heterogeneity
- Predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic with the A-SIR model: Lombardy, Italy and São Paulo state, Brazil
- Epidemic models with discrete state structures
- Social distancing versus early detection and contacts tracing in epidemic management
- An extended epidemic model with vaccination: weak-immune SIRVI
- Geometric Brownian motion and a new approach to the spread of Covid-19 in Italy
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4043669 (Why is no real title available?)
- A data-driven epidemic model with social structure for understanding the COVID-19 infection on a heavily affected Italian province
- Dynamics in a simple evolutionary-epidemiological model for the evolution of an initial asymptomatic infection stage
- Modeling Covid-19 considering asymptomatic cases and avoided contacts
- Nonlinear dynamics of an epidemic compartment model with asymptomatic infections and mitigation
- Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading
- Prediction of asymptomatic COVID‐19 infections based on complex network
- Health Professionals and the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Manaus during the First Wave
- Существовал ли период скрытого развития COVID-19 в Санкт-Петербурге? Результаты математического моделирования и факты;Whether there was a latent period of COVID-19 development in Saint Petersburg? Mathematical simulation results and facts
- Alternative SIAR models for infectious diseases and applications in the study of non-compliance
- Stability and bifurcation analysis of the Caputo fractional-order asymptomatic COVID-19 model with multiple time-delays
- Poisson structures and dynamics of SIR models
This page was built for publication: A simple SIR model with a large set of asymptomatic infectives
Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2167450)
