Occupancy times for time-dependent stage-structured models

DOI10.1007/S00285-022-01713-7zbMATH Open1489.92114arXiv2012.00196OpenAlexW3109720894WikidataQ113905410 ScholiaQ113905410MaRDI QIDQ2113515FDOQ2113515

Martin Rasmussen, Alan Hastings, George Chappelle

Publication date: 14 March 2022

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: During their lifetimes, individuals in populations pass through different states, and the notion of an occupancy time describes the amount of time an individual spends in a given set of states. Questions related to this idea were studied in a recent paper by Roth and Caswell for cases where the environmental conditions are constant. However, it is truly important to consider the case where environments are changing randomly or in directional way through time, so the transition probabilities between different states change over time, motivating the use of time-dependent stage-structured models. Using absorbing inhomogenous Markov chains and the discrete-time McKendrick--von F{"o}rster equation, we derive explicit formulas for the occupancy time, its expectation, and its higher-order moments for stage-structured models with time-dependent transition rates. We apply our approach to study a time-dependent model of the Southern Fulmar, and obtain insights into how the number of breeding attempts depends on external conditions that vary through time.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.00196

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zbMATH Keywords

inhomogeneous Markov chainMcKendrick-von Foerster equationoccupancy timesouthern fulmar

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.) (60J20) Population dynamics (general) (92D25)

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Cited In (3)

• Occupancy schemes associated to Yule processes
• Two-stage approaches to the analysis of occupancy data I: the homogeneous case (analysis of occupancy data)
• A two-state recurrent stochastic model with time-dependent transition rates

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