Occupancy times for time-dependent stage-structured models

DOI10.1007/S00285-022-01713-7MaRDI QIDQ2113515zbMATHOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors George Chappelle, Alan Hastings, Martin Rasmussen

Publication date 14 March 2022

Published in Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.00196

zbMATH Keywords

inhomogeneous Markov chainMcKendrick-von Foerster equationoccupancy timesouthern fulmar

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.) (60J20) Population dynamics (general) (92D25)

Abstract: During their lifetimes, individuals in populations pass through different states, and the notion of an occupancy time describes the amount of time an individual spends in a given set of states. Questions related to this idea were studied in a recent paper by Roth and Caswell for cases where the environmental conditions are constant. However, it is truly important to consider the case where environments are changing randomly or in directional way through time, so the transition probabilities between different states change over time, motivating the use of time-dependent stage-structured models. Using absorbing inhomogenous Markov chains and the discrete-time McKendrick--von F{"o}rster equation, we derive explicit formulas for the occupancy time, its expectation, and its higher-order moments for stage-structured models with time-dependent transition rates. We apply our approach to study a time-dependent model of the Southern Fulmar, and obtain insights into how the number of breeding attempts depends on external conditions that vary through time.

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Cited in

(4)

• A two-state recurrent stochastic model with time-dependent transition rates
• Occupancy schemes associated to Yule processes
• Two-stage approaches to the analysis of occupancy data I: the homogeneous case (analysis of occupancy data)
• Occupancy time in sets of states for demographic models

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