Fitting Markovian binary trees using global and individual demographic data

DOI10.1016/J.TPB.2019.04.007MaRDI QIDQ2313212zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Sophie Hautphenne, Melanie Massaro, Katharine Turner

Publication date 18 July 2019

Published in Theoretical Population Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.04281

zbMATH Keywords

maximum likelihoodnonlinear regressionMarkov processbranching processPetroica traversi

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Mathematical geography and demography (91D20) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Ecology (92D40)

Abstract: We consider a class of branching processes called Markovian binary trees, in which the individuals lifetime and reproduction epochs are modeled using a transient Markovian arrival process (TMAP). We estimate the parameters of the TMAP based on population data containing information on age-specific fertility and mortality rates. Depending on the degree of detail of the available data, a weighted non-linear regression method or a maximum likelihood method is applied. We discuss the optimal choice of the number of phases in the TMAP, and we provide confidence intervals for the model outputs. The results are illustrated using real data on human and bird populations.

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Cited in

(4)

• Parameter estimation for multivariate population processes: a saddlepoint approach
• Occupancy times for time-dependent stage-structured models
• An \textit{EM} algorithm for the model fitting of Markovian binary trees
• How old is this bird? The age distribution under some phase sampling schemes

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