Dengue outbreak prediction model for urban Colombo using meteorological data

DOI10.1504/IJDSDE.2021.120043MaRDI QIDQ2113773zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors K. K. W. H. Erandi, S. S. N. Perera, A. C. Mahasinghe

Publication date 14 March 2022

Published in International Journal of Dynamical Systems and Differential Equations (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1504/ijdsde.2021.120043

zbMATH Keywords

climate factorscross-correlationdenguedisease outbreakgeneralised linear regression formulaPearson correlation formulaprediction modelthresholdtime lagvector density

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Dynamical systems in biology (37N25) Epidemiology (92D30)

Review text

Summary: Dengue is a viral borne disease with complex transmission dynamics. Disease outbreak can exert an increasing pressure on the health system with high mortality. Understanding and predicting the outbreaks of dengue transmission is vital in controlling the spread. Mathematical models have become important tool in predicting the dynamics of dengue. Due to the complexity of the disease, general time series models do not describe the impact of the external parameters. In this work, we propose a generalised linear regression model to understand the dynamics of the dengue disease and predict the future outbreaks. To moderate the model, cross-correlation between reported dengue cases and climatic factors were identified using Pearson cross-correlation formula. Then threshold value was defined based on reported data in order to identify minimum risk level for the states of dengue outbreaks. Further, obtained results were compared.

Recommendations

• A two-dimensional dynamical system for local transmission of dengue with time invariant mosquito density
• An online spatiotemporal prediction model for dengue fever epidemic in Kaohsiung (Taiwan)
• Dengue fever: Mathematical modelling and computer simulation
• Mathematical modelling of immune parameters in the evolution of severe dengue
• Climate-driven statistical models as effective predictors of local dengue incidence in Costa Rica: a generalized additive model and random forest approach

Cited in

(6)

• Prediction of dengue cases based on human mobility and seasonality—An example for the city of Jakarta
• Climate-driven statistical models as effective predictors of local dengue incidence in Costa Rica: a generalized additive model and random forest approach
• IASM: a system for the intelligent active surveillance of malaria
• An online spatiotemporal prediction model for dengue fever epidemic in Kaohsiung (Taiwan)
• A coupled statistical and deterministic model for forecasting climate-driven dengue incidence in Selangor, Malaysia
• Assessing dengue risk globally using non-Markovian models

This page was built for publication: Dengue outbreak prediction model for urban Colombo using meteorological data

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2113773)