Mathematical modelling of immune parameters in the evolution of severe dengue

DOI10.1155/2017/2187390MaRDI QIDQ2401101zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors M. K. Premaratne, S. S. N. Perera, G. N. Malavige, Saroj Jayasinghe

Publication date 31 August 2017

Published in Computational \& Mathematical Methods in Medicine (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/2187390

zbMATH Keywords

dengue hemorrhagic feverHamacher operatorNS1 antigen

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Medical epidemiology (92C60) Lyapunov and storage functions (93D30)

Review text

Summary: Aims. Predicting the risk of severity at an early stage in an individual patient will be invaluable in preventing morbidity and mortality caused by dengue. We hypothesized that such predictions are possible by analyzing multiple parameters using mathematical modeling. Methodology. Data from 11 adult patients with dengue fever (DF) and 25 patients with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) were analyzed. Multivariate statistical analysis was performed to study the characteristics and interactions of parameters using dengue NS1 antigen levels, dengue IgG antibody levels, platelet counts, and lymphocyte counts. Fuzzy logic fundamentals were used to map the risk of developing severe forms of dengue. The cumulative effects of the parameters were incorporated using the Hamacher and the OWA operators. Results. The operator classified the patients according to the severity level during the time period of 96 hours to 120 hours after the onset of fever. The accuracy ranged from 53\% to 89\%. Conclusion. The results show a robust mathematical model that explains the evolution from dengue to its serious forms in individual patients. The model allows prediction of severe cases of dengue which could be useful for optimal management of patients during a dengue outbreak. Further analysis of the model may also deepen our understanding of the pathways towards severe illness.

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Cites work

• An overview of methods for determining OWA weights
• Virus antibody dynamics in primary and secondary dengue infections

Cited in

(7)

• Computational and mathematical methods to estimate the basic reproduction number and final size for single-stage and multistage progression disease models for Zika with preventative measures
• Biological view of vaccination described by mathematical modellings: from rubella to dengue vaccines
• Dengue outbreak prediction model for urban Colombo using meteorological data
• Dengue fever spreading based on probabilistic cellular automata with two lattices
• Modelling the relationship between antibody-dependent enhancement and immunological distance with application to dengue
• Modelling the host immune response to mature and immature dengue viruses
• Predictive models for the medical diagnosis of dengue: a case study in Paraguay

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