New approximations, and policy implications, from a delayed dynamic model of a fast pandemic

DOI10.1016/J.PHYSD.2020.132701zbMATH Open1493.34227arXiv2004.03878OpenAlexW3081254269WikidataQ99629443 ScholiaQ99629443MaRDI QIDQ2116277FDOQ2116277

Authors: Anindya Chatterjee, Chandrika P. Vyasarayani 

Publication date: 16 March 2022

Published in: Physica D (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We study an SEIQR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered) model for an infectious disease, with time delays for latency and an asymptomatic phase. For fast pandemics where nobody has prior immunity and everyone has immunity after recovery, the SEIQR model decouples into two nonlinear delay differential equations (DDEs) with five parameters. One parameter is set to unity by scaling time. The subcase of perfect quarantining and zero self-recovery before quarantine, with two free parameters, is examined first. The method of multiple scales yields a hyperbolic tangent solution; and a long-wave approximation yields a first order ordinary differential equation (ODE). With imperfect quarantining and nonzero self-recovery, the long-wave approximation is a second order ODE. These three approximations each capture the full outbreak, from infinitesimal initiation to final saturation. Low-dimensional dynamics in the DDEs is demonstrated using a six state non-delayed reduced order model obtained by Galerkin projection. Numerical solutions from the reduced order model match the DDE over a range of parameter choices and initial conditions. Finally, stability analysis and numerics show how correctly executed time-varying social distancing, within the present model, can cut the number of affected people by almost half. Alternatively, faster detection followed by near-certain quarantining can potentially be even more effective.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.03878

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zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19epidemicmultiple scalessocial distancinglong-wave solution

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Medical epidemiology (92C60) Epidemiology (92D30) Transformation and reduction of functional-differential equations and systems, normal forms (34K17) Asymptotic theory of functional-differential equations (34K25) Qualitative investigation and simulation of models involving functional-differential equations (34K60) Singular perturbations of functional-differential equations (34K26)

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Cited In (6)

• Comparing the dynamics of COVID-19 infection and mortality in the United States, India, and Brazil
• Epidemic models with discrete state structures
• Complete dimensional collapse in the continuum limit of a delayed SEIQR network model with separable distributed infectivity
• Age-structured modeling of COVID-19 dynamics: the role of treatment and vaccination in controlling the pandemic
• Trends in COVID-19 prevalence and mortality: a year in review
• A new approach to the dynamic modeling of an infectious disease

Uses Software

• Epigrass

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