Analytic solution of the SEIR epidemic model via asymptotic approximant

DOI10.1016/J.PHYSD.2020.132633zbMATH Open1496.34087arXiv2006.09818OpenAlexW3035768016WikidataQ98655546 ScholiaQ98655546MaRDI QIDQ2127396FDOQ2127396

Authors: S. J. Weinstein, Morgan S. Holland, Kelly E. Rogers, N. S. Barlow 

Publication date: 20 April 2022

Published in: Physica D (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: An analytic solution is obtained to the SEIR Epidemic Model. The solution is created by constructing a single second-order nonlinear differential equation in $lnS$ and analytically continuing its divergent power series solution such that it matches the correct long-time exponential damping of the epidemic model. This is achieved through an asymptotic approximant (Barlow et. al, 2017, Q. Jl Mech. Appl. Math, 70 (1), 21-48) in the form of a modified symmetric Pad'e approximant that incorporates this damping. The utility of the analytical form is demonstrated through its application to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.09818

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zbMATH Keywords

asymptotic analysisSEIR modelanalytic solutionapproximant

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models (34C60) Asymptotic approximations, asymptotic expansions (steepest descent, etc.) (41A60) Explicit solutions, first integrals of ordinary differential equations (34A05) Asymptotic properties of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D05) Analytical theory of ordinary differential equations: series, transformations, transforms, operational calculus, etc. (34A25)

Cites Work

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Cited In (19)

• Comparing the dynamics of COVID-19 infection and mortality in the United States, India, and Brazil
• Power-series solution of compartmental epidemiological models
• Analytical solution of SEIR model describing the free spread of the COVID-19 pandemic
• QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SEIRS ENDEMIC MODEL BOTH FROM PDEs AND ODEs PERSPECTIVE
• The first integrals and closed‐form solutions of a Susceptible‐Exposed‐Infectious epidemic model
• Nonlinear control of infection spread based on a deterministic SEIR model
• Nonlinear dynamics of an epidemic compartment model with asymptomatic infections and mitigation
• Analytical solution and adaptation to the parameter estimation of the SIR model
• Dynamics of SEIR epidemic model by optimal auxiliary functions method
• An unconditionally convergent discretizaton of the SEIR model
• Dynamical analysis and perturbation solution of an SEIR epidemic model
• Epidemiological models in semiclassical approximation: an analytically solvable model as a test case
• Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model
• Existence of exact solution of the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model
• Isolation in the control of epidemic
• Explicit formulae for the peak time of an epidemic from the SIR model
• Trends in COVID-19 prevalence and mortality: a year in review
• A highly accurate peak time formula of epidemic outbreak from the SIR model
• Analytical approximate solution of a SIR epidemic model with constant vaccination strategy by homotopy perturbation method

Uses Software

• GitHub

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