Analytic solution of the SEIR epidemic model via asymptotic approximant

DOI10.1016/J.PHYSD.2020.132633MaRDI QIDQ2127396zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors S. J. Weinstein, Morgan S. Holland, Kelly E. Rogers, N. S. Barlow

Publication date 20 April 2022

Published in Physica D (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.09818

zbMATH Keywords

analytic solutionapproximantasymptotic analysisSEIR model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Explicit solutions, first integrals of ordinary differential equations (34A05) Analytical theory of ordinary differential equations: series, transformations, transforms, operational calculus, etc. (34A25) Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models (34C60) Asymptotic properties of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D05) Asymptotic approximations, asymptotic expansions (steepest descent, etc.) (41A60) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: An analytic solution is obtained to the SEIR Epidemic Model. The solution is created by constructing a single second-order nonlinear differential equation in $lnS$ and analytically continuing its divergent power series solution such that it matches the correct long-time exponential damping of the epidemic model. This is achieved through an asymptotic approximant (Barlow et. al, 2017, Q. Jl Mech. Appl. Math, 70 (1), 21-48) in the form of a modified symmetric Pad'e approximant that incorporates this damping. The utility of the analytical form is demonstrated through its application to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Cited in

(21)

• Dynamical analysis and perturbation solution of an SEIR epidemic model
• Power-series solution of compartmental epidemiological models
• Explicit formulae for the peak time of an epidemic from the SIR model
• Trends in COVID-19 prevalence and mortality: a year in review
• Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model
• Analytical solution of SEIR model describing the free spread of the COVID-19 pandemic
• Nonlinear control of infection spread based on a deterministic SEIR model
• Dynamics of SEIR epidemic model by optimal auxiliary functions method
• Comparing the dynamics of COVID-19 infection and mortality in the United States, India, and Brazil
• Isolation in the control of epidemic
• Existence of exact solution of the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model
• Epidemiological models in semiclassical approximation: an analytically solvable model as a test case
• Analytical approximate solution of a SIR epidemic model with constant vaccination strategy by homotopy perturbation method
• Analytical solution and adaptation to the parameter estimation of the SIR model
• QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SEIRS ENDEMIC MODEL BOTH FROM PDEs AND ODEs PERSPECTIVE
• Nonlinear dynamics of an epidemic compartment model with asymptomatic infections and mitigation
• An unconditionally convergent discretizaton of the SEIR model
• The first integrals and closed‐form solutions of a Susceptible‐Exposed‐Infectious epidemic model
• A highly accurate peak time formula of epidemic outbreak from the SIR model
• Poisson structures and dynamics of SIR models
• Dynamic behaviors for fractional epidemiological model featuring vaccination and quarantine compartments

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