Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model

DOI10.1016/J.PHYSD.2020.132540MaRDI QIDQ2115550zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors N. S. Barlow, S. J. Weinstein

Publication date 17 March 2022

Published in Physica D (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.07833

zbMATH Keywords

asymptotic analysisSIR modelanalytic solutionapproximant

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Asymptotic approximations, asymptotic expansions (steepest descent, etc.) (41A60) Asymptotic properties of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D05)

Abstract: An accurate closed-form solution is obtained to the SIR Epidemic Model through the use of Asymptotic Approximants (Barlow et. al, 2017, Q. Jl Mech. Appl. Math, 70 (1), 21-48). The solution is created by analytically continuing the divergent power series solution such that it matches the long-time asymptotic behavior of the epidemic model. The utility of the analytical form is demonstrated through its application to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Cited in

(36)

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• Exact solution of the Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered–Deceased (SIRD) epidemic model
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