Mathematical analysis of a two-strain disease model with amplification

DOI10.1016/J.CHAOS.2020.110594zbMATH Open1498.92227arXiv1908.07837OpenAlexW3115169948MaRDI QIDQ2129459FDOQ2129459

A. I. Adekunle, Michael T. Meehan, Md Abdul Kuddus, Lisa J. White, Emma S. McBryde

Publication date: 22 April 2022

Published in: Chaos, Solitons and Fractals (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We investigate a two-strain disease model with amplification to simulate the prevalence of drug-susceptible (s) and drug-resistant (m) disease strains. We model the emergence of drug resistance as a consequence of inadequate treatment, i.e. amplification. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains three equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium; a mono-existent disease-endemic equilibrium with respect to the drug-resistant strain; and a co-existent disease-endemic equilibrium where both the drug-susceptible and drug-resistant strains persist. We found two basic reproduction numbers: one associated with the drug-susceptible strain $R_{0s}$; the other with the drug-resistant strain $R_{0m}$,and showed that at least one of the strains can spread in a population if ($R_{0s}$,$R_{0m}$) > 1 (epidemic).Furthermore, we also showed that if $R_{0m}$ > max($R_{0s}$,1), the drug-susceptible strain dies out but the drug-resistant strain persists in the population; however if $R_{0s}$ > max($R_{0m}$,1), then both the drug-susceptible and drug-resistant strains persist in the population. We conducted a local stability analysis of the system equilibrium points using the Routh-Hurwitz conditions and a global stability analysis using appropriate Lyapunov functions. Sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most important model parameters through the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) method. We found that the contact rate of both strains had the largest influence on prevalence. We also investigated the impact of amplification and treatment rates of both strains on the equilibrium prevalence of infection; results suggest that poor quality treatment make coexistence more likely but increase the relative abundance of resistant infections.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.07837

zbMATH Keywords

stability analysisdrug resistancemulti-strain

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models (34C60)

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Cited In (4)

• Dynamics of an immune-epidemiological model with virus evolution and superinfection
• Threshold dynamics and probability density function of a stochastic multi-strain coinfection model with amplification and vaccination
• Infection thresholds for two interacting pathogens in a wild animal population
• Extinction, persistence and density function analysis of a stochastic two-strain disease model with drug resistance mutation

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