Coupled, multi-strain epidemic models of mutating pathogens
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Publication:1698526
DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2017.12.006zbMATH Open1380.92079arXiv1611.04204OpenAlexW2778859051WikidataQ47210218 ScholiaQ47210218MaRDI QIDQ1698526FDOQ1698526
Authors: Michael T. Meehan, Daniel G. Cocks, James M. Trauer, Emma S. McBryde 
Publication date: 15 February 2018
Published in: Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: We introduce and analyze coupled, multi-strain epidemic models designed to simulate the emergence and dissemination of mutant (e.g. drug-resistant) pathogen strains. In particular, we investigate the mathematical and biological properties of a general class of multi-strain epidemic models in which the infectious compartments of each strain are coupled together in a general manner. We derive explicit expressions for the basic reproduction number of each strain and highlight their importance in regulating the system dynamics (e.g. the potential for an epidemic outbreak) and the existence of nonnegative endemic solutions. Importantly, we find that the basic reproduction number of each strain is independent of the mutation rates between the strains --- even under quite general assumptions for the form of the infectious compartment coupling. Moreover, we verify that the coupling term promotes strain coexistence (as an extension of the competitive exclusion principle) and demonstrate that the strain with the greatest reproductive capacity is not necessarily the most prevalent. Finally, we briefly discuss the implications of our results for public health policy and planning.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.04204
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Cited In (22)
- Coexistence of multiple pathogen strains in stochastic epidemic models with density-dependent mortality
- The effect of human vaccination behaviour on strain competition in an infectious disease: an imitation dynamic approach
- Dynamics of an immune-epidemiological model with virus evolution and superinfection
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- Title not available (Why is that?)
- Multiscale models of COVID-19 with mutations and variants
- The global dynamics of a SIR model considering competitions among multiple strains in patchy environments
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- Capturing the dynamics of pathogens with many strains
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