On the probability of strain invasion in endemic settings: accounting for individual heterogeneity and control in multi-strain dynamics

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2019.110109MaRDI QIDQ2291027zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Michael T. Meehan, Robert C. Cope, Emma S. McBryde

Publication date 30 January 2020

Published in Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.05010, http://europepmc.org/articles/pmc7094110

zbMATH Keywords

branching processmulti-strainepidemic controlpathogen evolutionanti-microbial drug resistancestrain invasion

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Microbiology (92C70)

Abstract: The rise of antimicrobial drug resistance is an imminent threat to global health that has warranted, and duly received, considerable attention within the medical, microbiological and modelling communities. Outbreaks of drug-resistant pathogens are ignited by the emergence and transmission of mutant variants descended from wild-type strains circulating in the community. In this work we investigate the stochastic dynamics of the emergence of a novel disease strain, introduced into a population in which it must compete with an existing endemic strain. In analogy with past work on single-strain epidemic outbreaks, we apply a branching process approximation to calculate the probability that the new strain becomes established. As expected, a critical determinant of the survival prospects of any invading strain is the magnitude of its reproduction number relative to that of the background endemic strain. Whilst in most circumstances this ratio must exceed unity in order for invasion to be viable, we show that differential control scenarios can lead to less-fit novel strains invading populations hosting a fitter endemic one. This analysis and the accompanying findings will inform our understanding of the mechanisms that have led to past instances of successful strain invasion, and provide valuable lessons for thwarting future drug-resistant strain incursions.

Recommendations

• Extinction, persistence and density function analysis of a stochastic two-strain disease model with drug resistance mutation
• The effect of human vaccination behaviour on strain competition in an infectious disease: an imitation dynamic approach
• Competition of pathogen strains leading to infection with variable infectivity and the effect of treatment
• Disease emergence in deterministic and stochastic models for host and pathogen
• Escaping stochastic extinction of mutant virus: temporal pattern of emergence of drug resistance within a host

Cites work

• Coupled, multi-strain epidemic models of mutating pathogens
• Evolutionary dynamics of infectious diseases in finite populations
• Hybrid Markov chain models of S-I-R disease dynamics
• Multivariate birth-and-death processes as approximations to epidemic processes
• ON THEORETICAL MODELS FOR COMPETITIVE AND PREDATORY BIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
• Stochastic epidemic models: a survey
• Strong approximations for epidemic models
• The probability of epidemic fade-out is non-monotonic in transmission rate for the Markovian SIR model with demography

Cited in

(5)

• Competition of pathogen strains leading to infection with variable infectivity and the effect of treatment
• The influence of social behaviour on competition between virulent pathogen strains
• A practical guide to mathematical methods for estimating infectious disease outbreak risks
• The role of heterogeneity on the invasion probability of mosquito-borne diseases in multi-host models
• Disease emergence in deterministic and stochastic models for host and pathogen

This page was built for publication: On the probability of strain invasion in endemic settings: accounting for individual heterogeneity and control in multi-strain dynamics

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2291027)