On the probability of strain invasion in endemic settings: accounting for individual heterogeneity and control in multi-strain dynamics

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2019.110109zbMATH Open1429.92134arXiv1907.05010OpenAlexW2994082552WikidataQ91803266 ScholiaQ91803266MaRDI QIDQ2291027FDOQ2291027

Authors: Michael T. Meehan, Robert C. Cope, Emma S. McBryde 

Publication date: 30 January 2020

Published in: Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The rise of antimicrobial drug resistance is an imminent threat to global health that has warranted, and duly received, considerable attention within the medical, microbiological and modelling communities. Outbreaks of drug-resistant pathogens are ignited by the emergence and transmission of mutant variants descended from wild-type strains circulating in the community. In this work we investigate the stochastic dynamics of the emergence of a novel disease strain, introduced into a population in which it must compete with an existing endemic strain. In analogy with past work on single-strain epidemic outbreaks, we apply a branching process approximation to calculate the probability that the new strain becomes established. As expected, a critical determinant of the survival prospects of any invading strain is the magnitude of its reproduction number relative to that of the background endemic strain. Whilst in most circumstances this ratio must exceed unity in order for invasion to be viable, we show that differential control scenarios can lead to less-fit novel strains invading populations hosting a fitter endemic one. This analysis and the accompanying findings will inform our understanding of the mechanisms that have led to past instances of successful strain invasion, and provide valuable lessons for thwarting future drug-resistant strain incursions.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.05010

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zbMATH Keywords

branching processmulti-strainepidemic controlpathogen evolutionanti-microbial drug resistancestrain invasion

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Microbiology (92C70)

Cites Work

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Cited In (5)

• Competition of pathogen strains leading to infection with variable infectivity and the effect of treatment
• The influence of social behaviour on competition between virulent pathogen strains
• A practical guide to mathematical methods for estimating infectious disease outbreak risks
• The role of heterogeneity on the invasion probability of mosquito-borne diseases in multi-host models
• Disease emergence in deterministic and stochastic models for host and pathogen

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