Inference and model selection in general causal time series with exogenous covariates
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Publication:2136604
Abstract: In this paper, we study a general class of causal processes with exogenous covariates, including many classical processes such as the ARMA-GARCH, APARCH, ARMAX, GARCH-X and APARCH-X processes. Under some Lipschitz-type conditions, the existence of a -weakly dependent strictly stationary and ergodic solution is established. We provide conditions for the strong consistency and derive the asymptotic distribution of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE), both when the true parameter is an interior point of the parameter's space and when it belongs to the boundary. A significance Wald-type test of parameter is developed. This test is quite extensive and includes the test of nullity of the parameter's components, which in particular, allows us to assess the relevance of the exogenous covariates. Relying on the QMLE of the model, we also propose a penalized criterion to address the problem of the model selection for this class. The weak and the strong consistency of the procedure are established. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to numerically illustrate the main results.
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Cited in
(6)- A general procedure for change-point detection in multivariate time series
- Consistent model selection criteria and goodness-of-fit test for common time series models
- Strongly consistent model selection for general causal time series
- On consistency for time series model selection
- Posterior predictive treatment assignment methods for causal inference in the context of time-varying treatments
- Causal inference with multiple time series: principles and problems
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