Dynamics of epidemic diseases without guaranteed immunity

DOI10.1186/S13362-021-00101-YzbMATH Open1485.92138arXiv2007.15971OpenAlexW3130468054MaRDI QIDQ2138205FDOQ2138205

Kurt Langfeld

Publication date: 11 May 2022

Published in: Journal of Mathematics in Industry (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic suggests a novel type of disease spread dynamics. WHO states that there is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are immune from a second infection [WHO]. Conventional mathematical models consider cases for which a recovered individual either becomes susceptible again or develops an immunity. Here, we study the case where infected agents recover and only develop immunity if they are continuously infected for some time. Otherwise, they become susceptible again. We show that field theory bounds the peak of the infectious rate. Consequently, the theory's phases characterise the disease dynamics: (i) a pandemic phase and (ii) a response regime. The model excellently describes the epidemic spread of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the city of Wuhan, China. We find that only 30% of the recovered agents have developed an immunity. We anticipate our paper to influence the decision making upon balancing the economic impact and the pandemic impact on society. As long as disease controlling measures keep the disease dynamics in the "response regime", a pandemic escalation ('second wave') is ruled out.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.15971

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zbMATH Keywords

coronavirusnumerical simulationinfectious diseasesSARS-CoV-2

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Cites Work

• Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications
• The mathematics of infectious diseases
• Thresholds for epidemic outbreaks in finite scale-free networks
• Beitrag zur Theorie des Ferromagnetismus
• Statistical Inference in a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model with Control Intervention: Ebola as a Case Study
• Statistical Studies of Infectious Disease Incidence
• Statistical Mechanics of Lattice Systems
• Mathematical Models in Epidemiology

Cited In (3)

• Patterns of reported infection and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 in England
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• A hybrid compartmental model with a case study of COVID-19 in Great Britain and Israel

Uses Software

• GitHub

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