A data-driven network model for the emerging COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan, Toronto and Italy

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2020.108391MaRDI QIDQ2197758zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Ling Xue, Shuang Lin Jing, Joel C. Miller, José Guillermo Estrada-Franco, Wei Sun, Hua-Feng Li, J. M. Hyman, Huanping Zhu

Publication date 1 September 2020

Published in Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14533, http://europepmc.org/articles/pmc7263299

zbMATH Keywords

control measuresCOVID-19heterogeneitymitigation strategiesnetwork model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Systems biology, networks (92C42) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses. Predictive modelling and forecasting the epidemic trends are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this pandemic. We develop a network model, where each node represents an individual and the edges represent contacts between individuals where the infection can spread. The individuals are classified based on the number of contacts they have each day (their node degrees) and their infection status. The transmission network model was respectively fitted to the reported data for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan (China), Toronto (Canada), and the Italian Republic using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm. Our model fits all three regions well with narrow confidence intervals and could be adapted to simulate other megacities or regions. The model projections on the role of containment strategies can help inform public health authorities to plan control measures.

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Cited in

(26)

• Trends in COVID-19 prevalence and mortality: a year in review
• Analysis of a COVID-19 epidemic model with seasonality
• Coupling the within-host process and between-host transmission of COVID-19 suggests vaccination and school closures are critical
• The impact of quarantine and medical resources on the control of COVID-19 in Wuhan based on a household model
• Time series forecasting of COVID-19 transmission in Canada using LSTM networks
• SARS-CoV-2 dissemination using a network of the US counties
• A multiscale model of COVID-19 dynamics
• Probabilistic predictions of SIS epidemics on networks based on population-level observations
• Staggered release policies for COVID-19 control: costs and benefits of relaxing restrictions by age and risk
• Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and United Kingdom
• Interpreting SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, deaths, and fatality rate -- making a case for standardized reporting to improve communication
• Comparing the dynamics of COVID-19 infection and mortality in the United States, India, and Brazil
• Spatial dynamic analysis for COVID-19 epidemic model with diffusion and Beddington-DeAngelis type incidence
• Hyperbolic compartmental models for epidemic spread on networks with uncertain data: Application to the emergence of COVID-19 in Italy
• A data-driven epidemic model with social structure for understanding the COVID-19 infection on a heavily affected Italian province
• A COVID-19 epidemic model predicting the effectiveness of vaccination
• Topological epidemic model: theoretical insight into underlying networks
• Predictive modeling for epidemic outbreaks: a new approach and COVID-19 case study
• Contact network models matching the dynamics of the COVID-19 spreading
• A latent space model and Hotelling's T² control chart to monitor the networks of Covid-19 symptoms
• Epidemic dynamics of influenza-like diseases spreading in complex networks
• Network-based uncertainty quantification for mathematical models in epidemiology
• Mathematical assessment of the role of interventions against SARS-CoV-2
• Complex network approaches for epidemic modeling: a case study of COVID-19
• Age-structured modeling of COVID-19 dynamics: the role of treatment and vaccination in controlling the pandemic
• Effect of preventive measures and heterogeneity of sexual contacts on Zika virus transmission

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