Predictive modeling for epidemic outbreaks: a new approach and COVID-19 case study

DOI10.1142/S0217595920500281MaRDI QIDQ5149558zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Jian Chen, Michael C. Fu, Wen-Hong Zhang, Junhua Zheng

Publication date 11 February 2021

Published in Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1142/s0217595920500281

zbMATH Keywords

coronavirusMarkov chainCOVID-19simulationpredictive analyticsepidemicsstochastic modelsanalyticspredictive modelingpandemictransition matrix model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.) (60J20) Epidemiology (92D30)

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Cites work

• Simulation optimization: a review and exploration in the new era of cloud computing and big data

Cited in

(37)

• SPADE4: sparsity and delay embedding based forecasting of epidemics
• Incidence moments: a simple method to study the memory and short term forecast of the COVID-19 incidence time-series
• Characterization of partially observed epidemics through Bayesian inference: application to COVID-19
• Modified SEIQHRDP and machine learning prediction for the epidemics
• An empirical forecasting method for epidemic outbreaks with application to Covid-19
• Flattening the curve of COVID-19 outbreak by early forecasting
• SBDiEM: a new mathematical model of infectious disease dynamics
• Sub-epidemic model forecasts during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA and European hotspots
• Probabilistic forecasting model for the COVID-19 pandemic based on the composite Monte Carlo model integrated with deep learning and fuzzy system
• Forecasting the cumulative confirmed cases with the FGM and fractional-order buffer operator in different stages of COVID-19
• Absorbing Markov chains for analyzing COVID-19 infections
• Novel stochastic descriptors of a Markovian SIRD model for the assessment of the severity behind epidemic outbreaks
• An extended robust mathematical model to project the course of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran
• Monitoring and prediction of an epidemic outbreak using syndromic observations
• Risk management, signal processing and econometrics: a new tool for forecasting the risk of disease outbreaks
• Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions
• Analysis of pandemic closing-reopening cycles using rigorous homotopy continuation: a case study with Montreal COVID-19 data
• A data-driven network model for the emerging COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan, Toronto and Italy
• Forecasting the COVID-19 diffusion in Italy and the related occupancy of intensive care units
• Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio
• A machine learning model for nowcasting epidemic incidence
• Dynamics identification and forecasting of COVID-19 by switching Kalman filters
• Pandemic management by a spatio-temporal mathematical model
• Prediction of COVID-19 corona virus pandemic based on time series data using support vector machine
• Sequential data assimilation of the stochastic SEIR epidemic model for regional COVID-19 dynamics
• Comparing short-term univariate and multivariate time-series forecasting models in infectious disease outbreak
• A novel epidemiologically informed particle filter for assessing epidemic phenomena. Application to the monkeypox outbreak of 2022
• A study of congestion-based information guidance policy for hierarchical healthcare systems
• Theta models for daily pandemic data
• Nonlinear regression in COVID-19 forecasting
• Phenomenological and mechanistic models for predicting early transmission data of COVID-19
• Inferring key epidemiological parameters and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on a modified SEIR model
• A simple statistical model for forecasting COVID-19 infections with application to south and southeast Asian countries
• Multi-wave modelling and short-term prediction of ICU bed occupancy by patients with COVID-19 in regions of Italy
• A discrete stochastic model of the COVID-19 outbreak: forecast and control
• Using a partial differential equation with Google mobility data to predict COVID-19 in Arizona
• The application of supervised and unsupervised computational predictive models to simulate the COVID19 pandemic

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