Forecasting the cumulative confirmed cases with the FGM and fractional-order buffer operator in different stages of COVID-19

DOI10.1155/2021/6178629MaRDI QIDQ2051679zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Yanhui Chen, Minglei Zhang, Kai Lisa Lo, Jackson Jinhong Mi

Publication date 24 November 2021

Published in Journal of Mathematics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6178629

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Medical epidemiology (92C60) Epidemiology (92D30)

Review text

Summary: This study proposes to use the fractional-order accumulation grey model (FGM) combined with the fractional-order buffer operator to predict the cumulative confirmed cases in different stages of COVID-19. In the early stages of COVID-19 outbreak, when the cumulative confirmed cases increased rapidly, we used the strengthening buffer operator in the prediction process. After the government's prevention measures started to take effect, the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases slows down. Therefore, the weakening buffer operator is applied in the prediction process. The fractional order of the buffer operator is derived from the historical data, which are more relevant. The empirical analysis of seven countries' data shows that the FGM with the fractional-order buffer operator achieves the best results for most cases. The fractional-order buffer operator improves the prediction accuracy of the FGM in this study. Our study also suggests a practical way for predicting the trend of epidemic diseases.

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Cited in

(3)

• Forecasting of COVID-19 time series for countries in the world based on a hybrid approach combining the fractal dimension and fuzzy logic
• A comparative study on the prediction of occupational diseases in China with hybrid algorithm combing models
• Theta models for daily pandemic data

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