Localized contacts between hosts reduce pathogen diversity

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2005.12.010MaRDI QIDQ2199226zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Yanyan Li

Publication date 16 September 2020

Published in Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0507013, http://hdl.handle.net/10400.7/50

zbMATH Keywords

spatial structurecomplex networksreinfection thresholdpathogen diversity

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Small world graphs, complex networks (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C82)

Abstract: We investigate the dynamics of a simple epidemiological model for the invasion by a pathogen strain of a population where another strain circulates. We assume that reinfection by the same strain is possible but occurs at a reduced rate due to acquired immunity. The rate of reinfection by a distinct strain is also reduced due to cross-immunity. Individual based simulations of this model on a `small-world' network show that the host contact network structure significantly affects the outcome of such an invasion, and as a consequence will affect the patterns of pathogen evolution. In particular, host populations interacting through a 'small-world' network of contacts support lower prevalence of infection than well-mixed populations, and the region in parameter space for which an invading strain can become endemic and coexist with the circulating strain is smaller, reducing the potential to accommodate pathogen diversity. We discuss the underlying mechanisms for the reported effects, and we propose an effective mean-field model to account for the contact structure of the host population in 'small-world' networks.

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Cited in

(2)

• A spatially stochastic epidemic model with partial immunization shows in mean field approximation the reinfection threshold
• The impact of past epidemics on future disease dynamics

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