An evidential Markov decision making model

DOI10.1016/J.INS.2018.08.013MaRDI QIDQ2200593zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Zichang He, Wen Jiang

Publication date 22 September 2020

Published in Information Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.06578

zbMATH Keywords

sure-thing principleDempster-Shafer evidence theorydisjunction effectlaw of total probabilityevidential Markov modelMarkov decision making model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models (62M05) Compound decision problems in statistical decision theory (62C25) Axioms; other general questions in probability (60A05)

Abstract: The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical laws. In this paper, an Evidential Markov (EM) decision making model based on Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory and Markov modelling is proposed to address this issue and model the real human decision-making process. In an evidential framework, the states are extended by introducing an uncertain state which represents the hesitance of a decision maker. The classical Markov model can not produce the disjunction effect, which assumes that a decision has to be certain at one time. However, the state is allowed to be uncertain in the EM model before the final decision is made. An extra uncertainty degree parameter is defined by a belief entropy, named Deng entropy, to assignment the basic probability assignment of the uncertain state, which is the key to predict the disjunction effect. A classical categorization decision-making experiment is used to illustrate the effectiveness and validity of EM model. The disjunction effect can be well predicted and the free parameters are less compared with the existing models.

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Cited in

(17)

• Support of decision-making under uncertainty on the basis of the non-Markov model
• Evidential Markov decision-making model based on belief entropy to predict interference effects
• An Evidential Measure of Risk in Evidential Markov Chains
• A new distance measure of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets and its application in decision making
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• Emergency alternative evaluation under group decision makers: a new method based on entropy weight and DEMATEL

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