Identification of an epidemiological model to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic using robust multiobjective optimization and stochastic fractal search

DOI10.1155/2020/9214159MaRDI QIDQ2223110zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Gustavo Barbosa Libotte, Gustavo Mendes Platt, Fran Sérgio Lobato

Publication date 28 January 2021

Published in Computational \& Mathematical Methods in Medicine (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.00289

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Review text

Summary: Traditionally, the identification of parameters in the formulation and solution of inverse problems considers that models, variables, and mathematical parameters are free of uncertainties. This aspect simplifies the estimation process, but does not consider the influence of relatively small changes in the design variables in terms of the objective function. In this work, the SIDR (Susceptible, Infected, Dead, and Recovered) model is used to simulate the dynamic behavior of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and its parameters are estimated by formulating a robust inverse problem, that is, considering the sensitivity of design variables. For this purpose, a robust multiobjective optimization problem is formulated, considering the minimization of uncertainties associated with the estimation process and the maximization of the robustness parameter. To solve this problem, the Multiobjective Stochastic Fractal Search algorithm is associated with the Effective Mean concept for the evaluation of robustness. The results obtained considering real data of the epidemic in China demonstrate that the evaluation of the sensitivity of the design variables can provide more reliable results.

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Cited in

(8)

• A multiobjective optimization model for prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 in China
• A comparative study on parameter estimation of COVID epidemiological models using differential evolution algorithm
• Age structured mathematical modeling studies on COVID-19 with respect to combined vaccination and medical treatment strategies
• A multi-objective approach to identify parameters of compartmental epidemiological models -- application to Ebola virus disease epidemics
• Agent-based mathematical model of COVID-19 spread in Novosibirsk region: identifiability, optimization and forecasting
• Robot Dance: a mathematical optimization platform for intervention against COVID-19 in a complex network
• Identification of an Epidemiological Model to Simulate the COVID-19 Epidemic using Robust Multi-objective Optimization and Stochastic Fractal Search
• Theoretical and numerical study of case reporting rate with application to epidemiology

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