Survival and extinction of epidemics on random graphs with general degree

DOI10.1214/20-AOP1451MaRDI QIDQ2227715zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Shankar Bhamidi, Danny Nam, Oanh Nguyen, Allan Sly

Publication date 15 February 2021

Published in The Annals of Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.03263, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aop/1611306380

zbMATH Keywords

contact processepidemicsGalton-Watson treephase transitionrandom graph

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Random graphs (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C80) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35)

Abstract: In this paper, we establish the necessary and sufficient criterion for the contact process on Galton-Watson trees (resp. random graphs) to exhibit the phase of extinction (resp. short survival). We prove that the survival threshold $lambd{a}_1$ for a Galton-Watson tree is strictly positive if and only if its offspring distribution $xi$ has an exponential tail, i.e., $mathbbE{e}^{cxi}<infty$ for some $c>0$, settling a conjecture by Huang and Durrett [12]. On the random graph with degree distribution $mu$, we show that if $mu$ has an exponential tail, then for small enough $lambda$ the contact process with the all-infected initial condition survives for $n^{1+o(1)}$-time w.h.p. (short survival), while for large enough $lambda$ it runs over $e^{Theta(n)}$-time w.h.p. (long survival). When $mu$ is subexponential, we prove that the contact process w.h.p. displays long survival for any fixed $lambda>0$.

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Cited in

(25)

• Exponential extinction time of the contact process on rank-one inhomogeneous random graphs
• The contact process on random hyperbolic graphs: metastability and critical exponents
• Explicit bounds for critical infection rates and expected extinction times of the contact process on finite random graphs
• The effect of avoiding known infected neighbors on the persistence of a recurring infection process
• Epidemic spreading and equilibrium social distancing in heterogeneous networks
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• Graph constructions for the contact process with a prescribed critical rate
• Population dynamics and statistical physics in synergy. Abstracts from the workshop held March 6--12, 2022
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• The extinction of the contact process in a one-dimensional random environment with long-range interactions
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