Continuous-time stochastic processes for the spread of COVID-19 disease simulated via a Monte Carlo approach and comparison with deterministic models

DOI10.1007/S00285-021-01657-4zbMATH Open1471.92294arXiv2103.09178OpenAlexW3139103352WikidataQ113905471 ScholiaQ113905471MaRDI QIDQ2232166FDOQ2232166

Authors: Fabiana Calleri, Giovanni Nastasi, Vittorio Romano 

Publication date: 4 October 2021

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Two stochastic models are proposed to describe the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first model the population is partitioned into four compartments: susceptible $S$, infected $I$, removed $R$ and dead people $D$. In order to have a cross validation, a deterministic version of such a model is also devised which is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations with delays. In the second stochastic model two further compartments are added: the class $A$ of asymptomatic individuals and the class $L$ of isolated infected people. Effects such as social distancing measures are easily included and the consequences are analyzed. Numerical solutions are obtained with Monte Carlo simulations. Quantitative predictions are provided which can be useful for the evaluation of political measures, e.g. the obtained results suggest that strategies based on herd immunity are too risky.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.09178

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zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19Monte Carlo simulationepidemic modelstochastic process

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Monte Carlo methods (65C05) Epidemiology (92D30) Stochastic processes (60G99)

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Cited In (9)

• A Continuous-Time Markov Chain Model for the Spread of COVID-19
• Well‐posedness for a diffusion–reaction compartmental model simulating the spread of COVID‐19
• A multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission: application to COVID-19 in the US
• The role of mobility in the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Andalusia
• Forest fire spreading: a nonlinear stochastic model continuous in space and time
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• Data-driven modeling of impact of differential efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines in two socio-economically contrasting cities: New York, USA and Bogotá, Colombia
• Stationary distribution and long-time behavior of COVID-19 model with stochastic effect
• Detecting time-changes in \(PM_{10}\) during covid pandemic by means of an Ornstein Uhlenbeck type process

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