Modeling epidemics through ladder operators

DOI10.1016/J.CHAOS.2020.110193MaRDI QIDQ2123646zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Fabio Bagarello, Federico Roccati, F. Gargano

Publication date 14 April 2022

Published in Chaos, Solitons and Fractals (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.14898

zbMATH Keywords

infectionspreading

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Population dynamics (general) (92D25)

Abstract: We propose a simple model of spreading of some infection in an originally healthy population which is different from other models existing in the literature. In particular, we use an operator technique which allows us to describe in a natural way the possible interactions between healthy and un-healthy populations, and their transformation into recovered and to dead people. After a rather general discussion, we apply our method to the analysis of Chinese data for the SARS-2003 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome; SARS-CoV-1) and the Coronavirus COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease; SARS-CoV-2 ) and we show that the model works very well in reproducing the long-time behaviour of the disease, and in particular in finding the number of affected and dead people in the limit of large time. Moreover, we show how the model can be easily modified to consider some lockdown measure, and we deduce that this procedure drastically reduces the asymptotic value of infected individuals, as expected, and observed in real life.

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Cited in

(3)

• A new virus-centric epidemic modeling approach. I: General theory and machine learning simulation of 2020 SARS CoV 2 (COVID-19) for Belgium, France, Italy, and Spain
• Linear behavior in covid19 epidemic as an effect of lockdown
• Continuous-time stochastic processes for the spread of COVID-19 disease simulated via a Monte Carlo approach and comparison with deterministic models

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