Modeling epidemics through ladder operators
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Publication:2123646
DOI10.1016/J.CHAOS.2020.110193zbMATH Open1495.92071arXiv2010.14898OpenAlexW3092077072WikidataQ100995437 ScholiaQ100995437MaRDI QIDQ2123646FDOQ2123646
Authors: Fabio Bagarello, Federico Roccati, F. Gargano 
Publication date: 14 April 2022
Published in: Chaos, Solitons and Fractals (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: We propose a simple model of spreading of some infection in an originally healthy population which is different from other models existing in the literature. In particular, we use an operator technique which allows us to describe in a natural way the possible interactions between healthy and un-healthy populations, and their transformation into recovered and to dead people. After a rather general discussion, we apply our method to the analysis of Chinese data for the SARS-2003 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome; SARS-CoV-1) and the Coronavirus COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease; SARS-CoV-2 ) and we show that the model works very well in reproducing the long-time behaviour of the disease, and in particular in finding the number of affected and dead people in the limit of large time. Moreover, we show how the model can be easily modified to consider some lockdown measure, and we deduce that this procedure drastically reduces the asymptotic value of infected individuals, as expected, and observed in real life.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.14898
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Cited In (3)
- Continuous-time stochastic processes for the spread of COVID-19 disease simulated via a Monte Carlo approach and comparison with deterministic models
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