Modelling the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in presence of the lockdown and quarantine measures by akinetic-type reactionsapproach

DOI10.1093/IMAMMB/DQAB017zbMATH Open1501.92195arXiv2101.05596OpenAlexW3119776472WikidataQ113819085 ScholiaQ113819085MaRDI QIDQ5044950FDOQ5044950

Giorgio Sonnino, Pasquale Nardone, Philippe Peeters

Publication date: 3 November 2022

Published in: Mathematical Medicine and Biology: A Journal of the IMA (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We propose a realistic model for the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic subject to the lockdown and quarantine measures, which takes into account the time-delay for recovery or death processes. The dynamic equations for the entire process are derived by adopting a kinetic-type reaction approach. More specifically, the lockdown and the quarantine measures are modelled by some kind of inhibitor reactions where susceptible and infected individuals can be trapped into inactive states. The dynamics for the recovered people is obtained by accounting people who are only traced back to hospitalised infected people. To get the evolution equation we take inspiration from the Michaelis- Menten enzyme-substrate reaction model (the so-called MM reaction) where the enzyme is associated to the available hospital beds, the substrate to the infected people, and the product to the recovered people, respectively. In other words, everything happens as if the hospitals beds act as a catalyser in the hospital recovery process. Of course, in our case the reverse MM reactions has no sense in our case and, consequently, the kinetic constant is equal to zero. Finally, the O.D.E.s for people tested positive to COVID-19 is simply modelled by the following kinetic scheme S+I=>2I with I=>R or I=>D, with S, I, R, and D denoting the compartments Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, and Deceased people, respectively. The resulting kinetic-type equation} provide the O.D.E.s, for elementary reaction steps, describing the number of the infected people, the total number of the recovered people previously hospitalised, subject to the lockdown and the quarantine measure, and the total number of deaths. The model foresees also the second wave of Infection by Coronavirus. The tests carried out on real data for Belgium, France and Germany confirmed the correctness of our model.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.05596

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zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19mathematical modeldynamics of population

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Kinetics in biochemical problems (pharmacokinetics, enzyme kinetics, etc.) (92C45)

Cited In (2)

• Assessing the impact of contact tracing, quarantine and red zone on the dynamical evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic using the cellular automata approach and the resulting mean field system: a case study in Mauritius
• Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading

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