Evidence with uncertain likelihoods

DOI10.1007/S11229-008-9381-ZzbMATH Open1193.03013arXiv1407.7189OpenAlexW2126080826MaRDI QIDQ2268773FDOQ2268773

Authors: Joseph Y. Halpern, Riccardo Pucella 

Publication date: 9 March 2010

Published in: Synthese (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: An agent often has a number of hypotheses, and must choose among them based on observations, or outcomes of experiments. Each of these observations can be viewed as providing evidence for or against various hypotheses. All the attempts to formalize this intuition up to now have assumed that associated with each hypothesis h there is a likelihood function {mu}h, which is a probability measure that intuitively describes how likely each observation is, conditional on h being the correct hypothesis. We consider an extension of this framework where there is uncertainty as to which of a number of likelihood functions is appropriate, and discuss how one formal approach to defining evidence, which views evidence as a function from priors to posteriors, can be generalized to accommodate this uncertainty.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1407.7189

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zbMATH Keywords

likelihooduncertaintyweight of evidenceconfirmation theory

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Probability and inductive logic (03B48) Logic in the philosophy of science (03A10)

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Cited In (2)

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• Total evidence, uncertainty and a priori beliefs

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