Hawking radiation and analogue experiments: a Bayesian analysis

DOI10.1016/J.SHPSB.2019.04.004zbMATH Open1421.83046arXiv1604.05932OpenAlexW2964208133WikidataQ127940113 ScholiaQ127940113MaRDI QIDQ2272829FDOQ2272829

Eric Winsberg, Karim P. Y. Thébault, Stephan Hartmann, Radin Dardashti

Publication date: 16 September 2019

Published in: Studies in History and Philosophy of Science. Part B. Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We present a Bayesian analysis of the epistemology of analogue experiments with particular reference to Hawking radiation. First, we prove that such experiments can be confirmatory in Bayesian terms based upon appeal to 'universality arguments'. Second, we provide a formal model for the scaling behaviour of the confirmation measure for multiple distinct realisations of the analogue system and isolate a generic saturation feature. Finally, we demonstrate that different potential analogue realisations could provide different levels of confirmation. Our results provide a basis both to formalise the epistemic value of analogue experiments that have been conducted and to advise scientists as to the respective epistemic value of future analogue experiments.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.05932

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Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Physics (00A79) Methods of quantum field theory in general relativity and gravitational theory (83C47) Black holes (83C57)

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Cited In (3)

• ON ARITHMETIC DETECTION OF GREY PULSES WITH APPLICATION TO HAWKING RADIATION
• Analytical investigation of wave absorption by a rotating black hole analogue
• Modeling creative abduction Bayesian style

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