New exploratory tools for extremal dependence: networks and annual extremal networks

DOI10.1007/S13253-019-00356-4MaRDI QIDQ2273002zbMATHOpenAlexFDO

Authors Whitney K. Huang, Daniel Cooley, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, Chen Chen, Snigdhansu Chatterjee

Publication date 18 September 2019

Published in Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.08169

zbMATH Keywords

networksspatial extremesprecipitationhurricanesexternal dependence

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Extreme value theory; extremal stochastic processes (60G70) Statistics of extreme values; tail inference (62G32) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Geostatistics (86A32)

Abstract: Understanding dependence structure among extreme values plays an important role in risk assessment in environmental studies. In this work we propose the $chi$ network and the annual extremal network for exploring the extremal dependence structure of environmental processes. A $chi$ network is constructed by connecting pairs whose estimated upper tail dependence coefficient, $hatchi$, exceeds a prescribed threshold. We develop an initial $chi$ network estimator and we use a spatial block bootstrap to assess both the bias and variance of our estimator. We then develop a method to correct the bias of the initial estimator by incorporating the spatial structure in $chi$. In addition to the $chi$ network, which assesses spatial extremal dependence over an extended period of time, we further introduce an annual extremal network to explore the year-to-year temporal variation of extremal connections. We illustrate the $chi$ and the annual extremal networks by analyzing the hurricane season maximum precipitation at the US Gulf Coast and surrounding area. Analysis suggests there exists long distance extremal dependence for precipitation extremes in the study region and the strength of the extremal dependence may depend on some regional scale meteorological conditions, for example, sea surface temperature.

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Cited in

(2)

• Guest editors' introduction to the special issue on ``Climate and the Earth system
• Partial Tail-Correlation Coefficient Applied to Extremal-Network Learning

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• R
• gss
• glasso
• fields
• ismev
• TETRAD
• evd

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