Countering violent extremism: a mathematical model

DOI10.1016/J.AMC.2019.04.054MaRDI QIDQ2279369zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Manuele Santoprete

Publication date 12 December 2019

Published in Applied Mathematics and Computation (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.05440

zbMATH Keywords

extremismglobal stabilityLyapunov functionsmathematical sociologypopulation modelsociophysics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Global stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D23) Mathematical sociology (including anthropology) (91D99) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: The term radicalization refers to the process of developing extremist religious political or social beliefs and ideologies. Radicalization becomes a threat to national security when it leads to violence. Prevention and de-radicalization initiatives are part of a set of strategies used to combat violent extremism, which taken together are known as Countering Violent Extremism (CVE). Prevention programs aim to stop the radicalization process before it starts. De-radicalization programs attempt to reform convicted extremists with the ultimate goal of social reintegration. We describe prevention and de-radicalization programs mathematically using a compartmental model. The prevention initiatives are modeled by including a vaccination compartment, while the de-radicalization process is modeled by including a treatment compartment. The model exhibits a threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction number $R_0$. When $R_0<1$ the system has a unique equilibrium that is asymptotically stable. When $R_0>1$ the system has another equilibrium called "endemic equilibrium", which is globally asymptotically stable. These results are established by using Lyapunov functions and LaSalle's invariance principle. We perform numerical simulations to confirm our theoretical results.

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Cites work

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Cited in

(12)

• A bare-bones mathematical model of radicalization
• Dynamics of conflicting opinions considering rationality
• Global stability in a mathematical model of de-radicalization
• Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity
• Mathematical model analysis on the diffusion of violence
• Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism
• Age-structured social interactions enhance radicalization
• Elzaki transform method for solving deterministic modeling of terrorism
• Criminals and their models -- a review of epidemiological models describing criminal behaviour
• Trust in society: a stochastic compartmental model
• Estimating the prevalence of terrorism under control policies. A statistical modelling approach
• Taking control: a modified epidemiological model investigating strategies for curbing criminal behavior

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