Mathematical modeling of church growth

DOI10.1080/0022250X.1999.9990223MaRDI QIDQ4937261zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors John Hayward

Publication date 3 February 2000

Published in The Journal of Mathematical Sociology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.08482

zbMATH Keywords

differential equationsepidemicspopulation modelsrevivalchurch growthduffusion

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Mathematical sociology (including anthropology) (91D99)

Abstract: The possibility of using mathematics to model church growth is investigated using ideas from population modeling. It is proposed that a major mechanism of growth is through contact between religious enthusiasts and unbelievers, where the enthusiasts are only enthusiastic for a limited period. After that period they remain church members but less effective in recruitment. This leads to the general epidemic model which is applied to a variety of church growth situations. Results show that even a simple model like this can help understand the way in which churches grow, particularly in times of religious revival. This is a revised version of Hayward (1999) using System Dynamics and some small modifications to the SIR model.

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Cites work

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• Endemic infections in growing populations
• Innovation diffusion: Some new technological substitution models
• Threshold models of diffusion and collective behavior

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• Dynamics of conflicting opinions considering rationality
• The Future of Bilingualism: An Application of the Baggs and Freedman Model
• Dynamics of opinion polarization in a population

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