Mathematical modeling of church growth
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Publication:4937261
DOI10.1080/0022250X.1999.9990223zbMATH Open0951.91072arXiv1805.08482OpenAlexW2094909834MaRDI QIDQ4937261FDOQ4937261
Authors: John Hayward 
Publication date: 3 February 2000
Published in: The Journal of Mathematical Sociology (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: The possibility of using mathematics to model church growth is investigated using ideas from population modeling. It is proposed that a major mechanism of growth is through contact between religious enthusiasts and unbelievers, where the enthusiasts are only enthusiastic for a limited period. After that period they remain church members but less effective in recruitment. This leads to the general epidemic model which is applied to a variety of church growth situations. Results show that even a simple model like this can help understand the way in which churches grow, particularly in times of religious revival. This is a revised version of Hayward (1999) using System Dynamics and some small modifications to the SIR model.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.08482
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