Plus-minus player ratings for soccer

DOI10.1016/J.EJOR.2019.11.026MaRDI QIDQ2286991zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Tarak Kharrat, Ian G. McHale, Javier López Peña

Publication date 23 January 2020

Published in European Journal of Operational Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.04943

zbMATH Keywords

OR in sportspoint-processridge regressionsoccersparse matrix

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics (62P99)

Abstract: The paper presents a plus-minus rating for use in association football (soccer). We first describe the standard plus-minus methodology as used in basketball and ice-hockey and then adapt it for use in soccer. The usual goal-differential plus-minus is considered before two variations are proposed. For the first variation, we present a methodology to calculate an expected goals plus-minus rating. The second variation makes use of in-play probabilities of match outcome to evaluate an expected points plus-minus rating. We use the ratings to examine who are the best players in European football, and demonstrate how the players' ratings evolve over time. Finally, we shed light on the debate regarding which is the strongest league. The model suggests the English Premier League is the strongest, with the German Bundesliga a close runner-up.

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Cites work

• A random point process model for the score in sport matches
• Competing process hazard function models for player ratings in ice hockey
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3168165 (Why is no real title available?)
• Mathletics. How gamblers, managers, and sports enthusiasts use mathematics in baseball, basketball, and football. With a new epilogue by the author
• Scikit-learn: machine learning in Python

Cited in

(8)

• Estimating transfer fees of professional footballers using advanced performance metrics and machine learning
• Competing process hazard function models for player ratings in ice hockey
• Who are the real top scorers: algorithmically resorting a top scorer list by a limited set of preference assumptions
• Measuring competitive balance in sports leagues that award bonus points, with an application to rugby union
• COVID-19 infections and short-run worker performance: evidence from European football
• Modeling the complexity of basketball games using marked mutually exciting point processes
• Plus-minus models for evaluating and scouting soccer players using possession sequences
• Management mathematics in sport -- moneyball and soccer

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• Keras
• TrueSkill
• XGBoost
• R
• Matrix
• Matplotlib
• Scikit
• GitHub

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