Semiparametric empirical best prediction for small area estimation of unemployment indicators
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Publication:2318679
DOI10.1214/18-AOAS1226zbMATH Open1423.62162arXiv1704.02220WikidataQ127681976 ScholiaQ127681976MaRDI QIDQ2318679FDOQ2318679
Authors: Maria Francesca Marino, M. Giovanna Ranalli, Nicola Salvati, Marco Alfo' 
Publication date: 15 August 2019
Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: The Italian National Institute for Statistics regularly provides estimates of unemployment indicators using data from the Labor Force Survey. However, direct estimates of unemployment incidence cannot be released for Local Labor Market Areas. These are unplanned domains defined as clusters of municipalities; many are out-of-sample areas and the majority is characterized by a small sample size, which render direct estimates inadequate. The Empirical Best Predictor represents an appropriate, model-based, alternative. However, for non-Gaussian responses, its computation and the computation of the analytic approximation to its Mean Squared Error require the solution of (possibly) multiple integrals that, generally, have not a closed form. To solve the issue, Monte Carlo methods and parametric bootstrap are common choices, even though the computational burden is a non trivial task. In this paper, we propose a Semi-Parametric Empirical Best Predictor for a (possibly) non-linear mixed effect model by leaving the distribution of the area-specific random effects unspecified and estimating it from the observed data. This approach is known to lead to a discrete mixing distribution which helps avoid unverifiable parametric assumptions and heavy integral approximations. We also derive a second-order, bias-corrected, analytic approximation to the corresponding Mean Squared Error. Finite sample properties of the proposed approach are tested via a large scale simulation study. Furthermore, the proposal is applied to unit-level data from the 2012 Italian Labor Force Survey to estimate unemployment incidence for 611 Local Labor Market Areas using auxiliary information from administrative registers and the 2011 Census.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.02220
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binary datasmall area estimationexponential familyfinite mixturesgeneral parametersmixed logistic modelunit-level model
Linear regression; mixed models (62J05) Applications of statistics to economics (62P20) Sampling theory, sample surveys (62D05) Generalized linear models (logistic models) (62J12)
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Cited In (7)
- Graph-based spatial segmentation of areal data
- Estimating regional unemployment with mobile network data for functional urban areas in Germany
- \(\ell_2\)-penalized approximate likelihood inference in logit mixed models for regional prevalence estimation under covariate rank-deficiency
- Estimation of small area counts with the benchmarking property
- Semiparametric empirical best prediction for small area estimation of unemployment indicators
- Title not available (Why is that?)
- Sae estimation of related labor market indicators for different overlapping areas
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