Abstract: We study the least squares regression function estimator over the class of real-valued functions on that are increasing in each coordinate. For uniformly bounded signals and with a fixed, cubic lattice design, we establish that the estimator achieves the minimax rate of order in the empirical loss, up to poly-logarithmic factors. Further, we prove a sharp oracle inequality, which reveals in particular that when the true regression function is piecewise constant on hyperrectangles, the least squares estimator enjoys a faster, adaptive rate of convergence of , again up to poly-logarithmic factors. Previous results are confined to the case . Finally, we establish corresponding bounds (which are new even in the case ) in the more challenging random design setting. There are two surprising features of these results: first, they demonstrate that it is possible for a global empirical risk minimisation procedure to be rate optimal up to poly-logarithmic factors even when the corresponding entropy integral for the function class diverges rapidly; second, they indicate that the adaptation rate for shape-constrained estimators can be strictly worse than the parametric rate.
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