A cholera mathematical model with vaccination and the biggest outbreak of world's history
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Publication:2335289
mathematical modelinglocal asymptotic stabilitySITRVB cholera modelvaccination treatmentYemen cholera outbreak
Medical epidemiology (92C60) Epidemiology (92D30) Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models (34C60) Topological structure of integral curves, singular points, limit cycles of ordinary differential equations (34C05) Stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D20)
Abstract: We propose and analyse a mathematical model for cholera considering vaccination. We show that the model is epidemiologically and mathematically well posed and prove the existence and uniqueness of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. The basic reproduction number is determined and the local asymptotic stability of equilibria is studied. The biggest cholera outbreak of world's history began on 27th April 2017, in Yemen. Between 27th April 2017 and 15th April 2018 there were 2275 deaths due to this epidemic. A vaccination campaign began on 6th May 2018 and ended on 15th May 2018. We show that our model is able to describe well this outbreak. Moreover, we prove that the number of infected individuals would have been much lower provided the vaccination campaign had begun earlier.
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- Application of a new generalized fractional derivative and rank of control measures on cholera transmission dynamics
- Numerical investigation of fractional-order cholera epidemic model with transmission dynamics via fractal-fractional operator technique
- Identification of epidemiological models: the case study of Yemen cholera outbreak
- Optimal control of aquatic diseases: a case study of Yemen's cholera outbreak
- A dynamic optimal control model for COVID-19 and cholera co-infection in Yemen
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