A cholera mathematical model with vaccination and the biggest outbreak of world's history

DOI10.3934/MATH.2018.4.448zbMATH Open1429.34054arXiv1810.05823WikidataQ129066508 ScholiaQ129066508MaRDI QIDQ2335289FDOQ2335289

Authors: Ana P. Lemos-Paião, Cristiana J. Silva, Delfim F. M. Torres 

Publication date: 14 November 2019

Published in: AIMS Mathematics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We propose and analyse a mathematical model for cholera considering vaccination. We show that the model is epidemiologically and mathematically well posed and prove the existence and uniqueness of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. The basic reproduction number is determined and the local asymptotic stability of equilibria is studied. The biggest cholera outbreak of world's history began on 27th April 2017, in Yemen. Between 27th April 2017 and 15th April 2018 there were 2275 deaths due to this epidemic. A vaccination campaign began on 6th May 2018 and ended on 15th May 2018. We show that our model is able to describe well this outbreak. Moreover, we prove that the number of infected individuals would have been much lower provided the vaccination campaign had begun earlier.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.05823

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zbMATH Keywords

mathematical modelinglocal asymptotic stabilitySITRVB cholera modelvaccination treatmentYemen cholera outbreak

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Medical epidemiology (92C60) Epidemiology (92D30) Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models (34C60) Topological structure of integral curves, singular points, limit cycles of ordinary differential equations (34C05) Stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D20)

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Cited In (12)

• Identification of epidemiological models: the case study of Yemen cholera outbreak
• A SIQRB delayed model for cholera and optimal control treatment
• Optimal control of aquatic diseases: a case study of Yemen's cholera outbreak
• Stochastic and deterministic mathematical model of cholera disease dynamics with direct transmission
• Modeling and analysis of HIV and cholera direct transmission with optimal control
• The spread of a financial virus through Europe and beyond
• A new generalized fractional-order derivative and bifurcation analysis of cholera and human immunodeficiency co-infection dynamic transmission
• Utilizing fractional derivatives and sensitivity analysis in a random framework: a model-based approach to the investigation of random dynamics of malware spread
• Numerical investigation of fractional-order cholera epidemic model with transmission dynamics via fractal-fractional operator technique
• Application of a new generalized fractional derivative and rank of control measures on cholera transmission dynamics
• Transmission dynamics of cholera with hyperinfectious and hypoinfectious vibrios: mathematical modelling and control strategies
• A dynamic optimal control model for COVID-19 and cholera co-infection in Yemen

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