Calibration of a SEIR-SEI epidemic model to describe the zika virus outbreak in Brazil
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Publication:2335754
DOI10.1016/J.AMC.2018.06.024zbMATH Open1427.92086arXiv2105.06036OpenAlexW2734347696WikidataQ112076414 ScholiaQ112076414MaRDI QIDQ2335754FDOQ2335754
Authors: Eber Dantas, Michel Tosin, Americo jun. Cunha 
Publication date: 15 November 2019
Published in: Applied Mathematics and Computation (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: Multiple instances of Zika virus epidemic have been reported around the world in the last two decades, turning the related illness into an international concern. In this context the use of mathematical models for epidemics is of great importance, since they are useful tools to study the underlying outbreak numbers and allow one to test the effectiveness of different strategies used to combat the associated diseases. This work deals with the development and calibration of an epidemic model to describe the 2016 outbreak of Zika virus in Brazil. A system of 8 differential equations with 8 parameters is employed to model the evolution of the infection through two populations. Nominal values for the model parameters are estimated from the literature. An inverse problem is formulated and solved by comparing the system response to real data from the outbreak. The calibrated results presents realistic parameters and returns reasonable descriptions, with the curve shape similar to the outbreak evolution and peak value close to the highest number of infected people during 2016. Considerations about the lack of data for some initial conditions are also made through an analysis over the response behavior according to their change in value.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.06036
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Cited In (15)
- An experimental statistical analysis of Zika and Chikungunya through the SIR model
- Analytic solutions to nonlinear ODEs via spectral power series
- Modeling Zika transmission dynamics: prevention and control
- A tutorial on Sobol' global sensitivity analysis applied to biological models
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- Modeling and numerical investigation of a conformable co‐infection model for describing Hantavirus of the European moles
- Global stability analysis of a general nonlinear scabies dynamics model
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