Coalescence in the diffusion limit of a Bienaymé-Galton-Watson branching process

DOI10.1016/J.TPB.2019.09.009zbMATH Open1425.92152arXiv1904.10664OpenAlexW2977935191WikidataQ90484380 ScholiaQ90484380MaRDI QIDQ2337460FDOQ2337460

Conrad J. Burden, Albert C. Soewongsono

Publication date: 20 November 2019

Published in: Theoretical Population Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We consider the problem of estimating the elapsed time since the most recent common ancestor of a finite random sample drawn from a population which has evolved through a Bienayme-Galton-Watson branching process. More specifically, we are interested in the diffusion limit appropriate to a supercritical process in the near-critical limit evolving over a large number of time steps. Our approach differs from earlier analyses in that we assume the only known information is the mean and variance of the number of offspring per parent, the observed total population size at the time of sampling, and the size of the sample. We obtain a formula for the probability that a finite random sample of the population is descended from a single ancestor in the initial population, and derive a confidence interval for the initial population size in terms of the final population size and the time since initiating the process. We also determine a joint likelihood surface from which confidence regions can be determined for simultaneously estimating two parameters, (1) the population size at the time of the most recent common ancestor, and (2) the time elapsed since the existence of the most recent common ancestor.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.10664

zbMATH Keywords

coalescentdiffusion processbranching processmost recent common ancestor

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of branching processes (60J85) Population dynamics (general) (92D25)

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Cited In (6)

• Coalescence in Branching Processes
• Coalescent models derived from birth-death processes
• Coalescence Times for the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson Process
• On the genealogy and coalescence times of Bienaymé–Galton–Watson branching processes
• A characterisation of the reconstructed birth-death process through time rescaling
• Coagulation and universal scaling limits for critical Galton–Watson processes

Uses Software

• WolframAlpha

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