Dynamic decision making for graphical models applied to oil exploration
From MaRDI portal
Publication:2356038
Abstract: This paper has been withdrawn by the authors. We present a framework for sequential decision making in problems described by graphical models. The setting is given by dependent discrete random variables with associated costs or revenues. In our examples, the dependent variables are the potential outcomes (oil, gas or dry) when drilling a petroleum well. The goal is to develop an optimal selection strategy that incorporates a chosen utility function within an approximated dynamic programming scheme. We propose and compare different approximations, from simple heuristics to more complex iterative schemes, and we discuss their computational properties. We apply our strategies to oil exploration over multiple prospects modeled by a directed acyclic graph, and to a reservoir drilling decision problem modeled by a Markov random field. The results show that the suggested strategies clearly improve the simpler intuitive constructions, and this is useful when selecting exploration policies.
Recommendations
Cites work
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3513115 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3638998 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1321699 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4121482 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5180199 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3063363 (Why is no real title available?)
- Approximate Dynamic Programming
- Bootstrap methods for standard errors, confidence intervals, and other measures of statistical accuracy. With a comment by J. A. Hartigan and a rejoinder by the authors
- Efficient recursions for general factorisable models
- Myopic Heuristics for the Random Yield Problem
- Oil exploration: sequential decisions in the face of uncertainty
- Optimal sequential exploration: bandits, clairvoyants, and wildcats
- Rolling Horizon Procedures in Nonhomogeneous Markov Decision Processes
- Synergies of operations research and data mining
- The knowledge gradient algorithm for a general class of online learning problems
- The value of information in spatial decision making
- Using Bayesian network analysis to support centre of gravity analysis in military planning
Cited in
(8)- Dynamic systems based on preference graph and distance
- Reinforcement learning-based design of sampling policies under cost constraints in Markov random fields: application to weed map reconstruction
- (sfi)\(^2\) statistics for innovation -- the experience of the Oslo centre in industrial statistics
- Information gathering in Bayesian networks applied to petroleum prospecting
- Structure learning in Bayesian networks using regular vines
- Risk decision-making method using interval numbers and its application based on the prospect value with multiple reference points
- A review of the operations literature on real options in energy
- The value of information in portfolio problems with dependent projects
This page was built for publication: Dynamic decision making for graphical models applied to oil exploration
Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2356038)
