Dynamic decision making for graphical models applied to oil exploration

DOI10.1016/J.EJOR.2013.04.057zbMATH Open1317.90071arXiv1201.4239OpenAlexW1967950205MaRDI QIDQ2356038FDOQ2356038

Authors: G. Martinelli, Jo Eidsvik, Ragnar Hauge 

Publication date: 28 July 2015

Published in: European Journal of Operational Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper has been withdrawn by the authors. We present a framework for sequential decision making in problems described by graphical models. The setting is given by dependent discrete random variables with associated costs or revenues. In our examples, the dependent variables are the potential outcomes (oil, gas or dry) when drilling a petroleum well. The goal is to develop an optimal selection strategy that incorporates a chosen utility function within an approximated dynamic programming scheme. We propose and compare different approximations, from simple heuristics to more complex iterative schemes, and we discuss their computational properties. We apply our strategies to oil exploration over multiple prospects modeled by a directed acyclic graph, and to a reservoir drilling decision problem modeled by a Markov random field. The results show that the suggested strategies clearly improve the simpler intuitive constructions, and this is useful when selecting exploration policies.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.4239

Recommendations

• Oil exploration: sequential decisions in the face of uncertainty
• Publication:4896273
• A generalized oil exploration problem
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 892244
• Optimal Stopping in Oil Exploration with Small and Large Oilfields

zbMATH Keywords

heuristicsBayesian networksdynamic programminggraphical modelpetroleum exploration

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Management decision making, including multiple objectives (90B50) Dynamic programming (90C39) Stochastic network models in operations research (90B15)

Cites Work

• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Approximate Dynamic Programming
• Rolling Horizon Procedures in Nonhomogeneous Markov Decision Processes
• Myopic Heuristics for the Random Yield Problem
• The value of information in spatial decision making
• The knowledge gradient algorithm for a general class of online learning problems
• Synergies of operations research and data mining
• Bootstrap methods for standard errors, confidence intervals, and other measures of statistical accuracy. With a comment by J. A. Hartigan and a rejoinder by the authors
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Oil exploration: sequential decisions in the face of uncertainty
• Optimal sequential exploration: bandits, clairvoyants, and wildcats
• Efficient recursions for general factorisable models
• Using Bayesian network analysis to support centre of gravity analysis in military planning

Cited In (8)

• Dynamic systems based on preference graph and distance
• (sfi)\(^2\) statistics for innovation -- the experience of the Oslo centre in industrial statistics
• Reinforcement learning-based design of sampling policies under cost constraints in Markov random fields: application to weed map reconstruction
• Information gathering in Bayesian networks applied to petroleum prospecting
• Structure learning in Bayesian networks using regular vines
• Risk decision-making method using interval numbers and its application based on the prospect value with multiple reference points
• A review of the operations literature on real options in energy
• The value of information in portfolio problems with dependent projects

This page was built for publication: Dynamic decision making for graphical models applied to oil exploration

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2356038)