Timescales of population rarity and commonness in random environments

DOI10.1016/J.TPB.2006.01.005MaRDI QIDQ2500405zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Régis Ferrière, Alice Guionnet, Irina Kurkova

Publication date 23 August 2006

Published in Theoretical Population Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0410227

zbMATH Keywords

Markov chainsMartingalesPower lawPopulation dynamicsEnvironmental stochasticityEcological timescalesOn-off intermittencyStochastic nonlinear difference equations

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Ecology (92D40) Applications of stochastic analysis (to PDEs, etc.) (60H30)

Abstract: This paper investigates the influence of environmental noise on the characteristic timescale of the dynamics of density-dependent populations. General results are obtained on the statistics of time spent in rarity and time spent in commonness. The nonlinear stochastic models under consideration form a class of Markov chains on the state space $]0,infty[$ which are transient if the intrinsic growth rate is negative and recurrent if it is positive or null. In the recurrent case, we obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for positive recurrence and precise estimates for the distribution of times of rarity and commonness. In the null recurrent, critical case that applies to ecologically neutral species, the distribution of rarity time is a universal power law with exponent -3/2. These non- trivial results should be of interest to biologists involved in the conservation of threatened populations, and to epidemiologists facing the need to better understanding the dynamics of pest or disease outbreaks.

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Cited in

(2)

• Asymptotic dynamics in populations structured by sensitivity to global warming and habitat shrinking
• Fixation times in deme structured, finite populations with rare migration

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