Timescales of population rarity and commonness in random environments

DOI10.1016/J.TPB.2006.01.005zbMATH Open1120.92044arXivmath/0410227OpenAlexW2594564553WikidataQ51946817 ScholiaQ51946817MaRDI QIDQ2500405FDOQ2500405

Authors: Régis Ferrière, Alice Guionnet, Irina Kurkova 

Publication date: 23 August 2006

Published in: Theoretical Population Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper investigates the influence of environmental noise on the characteristic timescale of the dynamics of density-dependent populations. General results are obtained on the statistics of time spent in rarity and time spent in commonness. The nonlinear stochastic models under consideration form a class of Markov chains on the state space $]0,infty[$ which are transient if the intrinsic growth rate is negative and recurrent if it is positive or null. In the recurrent case, we obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for positive recurrence and precise estimates for the distribution of times of rarity and commonness. In the null recurrent, critical case that applies to ecologically neutral species, the distribution of rarity time is a universal power law with exponent -3/2. These non- trivial results should be of interest to biologists involved in the conservation of threatened populations, and to epidemiologists facing the need to better understanding the dynamics of pest or disease outbreaks.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0410227

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zbMATH Keywords

Markov chainsMartingalesPower lawPopulation dynamicsEnvironmental stochasticityEcological timescalesOn-off intermittencyStochastic nonlinear difference equations

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Ecology (92D40) Applications of stochastic analysis (to PDEs, etc.) (60H30)

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Cited In (2)

• Asymptotic dynamics in populations structured by sensitivity to global warming and habitat shrinking
• Fixation times in deme structured, finite populations with rare migration

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