Exact deterministic representation of Markovian SIR epidemics on networks with and without loops
From MaRDI portal
Publication:2512941
Abstract: In a previous paper Sharkey et al. [13] proved the exactness of closures at the level of triples for Markovian SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) dynamics on tree-like networks. This resulted in a deterministic representation of the epidemic dynamics on the network that can be numerically evaluated. In this paper, we extend this modelling framework to certain classes of networks exhibiting loops. We show that closures where the loops are kept intact are exact, and lead to a simplified and numerically solvable system of ODEs (ordinary-differential-equations). The findings of the paper lead us to a generalisation of closures that are based on partitioning the network around nodes that are cut-vertices (i.e. the removal of such a node leads to the network breaking down into at least two disjointed components or subnetworks). Exploiting this structural property of the network yields some natural closures, where the evolution of a particular state can typically be exactly given in terms of the corresponding or projected sates on the subnetworks and the cut-vertex. A byproduct of this analysis is an alternative probabilistic proof of the exactness of the closures for tree-like networks presented in Sharkey et al. [13]. In this paper we also elaborate on how the main result can be applied to more realistic networks, for which we write down the ODEs explicitly and compare output from these to results from simulation. Furthermore, we give a general, recipe-like method of how to apply the reduction by closures technique for arbitrary networks, and give an upper bound on the maximum number of equations needed for an exact representation.
Recommendations
- Exact equations for SIR epidemics on tree graphs
- Complete hierarchies of SIR models on arbitrary networks with exact and approximate moment closure
- Exact and approximate moment closures for non-Markovian network epidemics
- Necessary and sufficient conditions for exact closures of epidemic equations on configuration model networks
- From Markovian to pairwise epidemic models and the performance of moment closure approxi\-mations
Cites work
- Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure
- Deterministic epidemic models on contact networks: correlations and unbiological terms
- Deterministic epidemiological models at the individual level
- Exact epidemic models on graphs using graph-automorphism driven lumping
- Exact equations for SIR epidemics on tree graphs
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1033260 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 2203240 (Why is no real title available?)
- Interdependency and hierarchy of exact and approximate epidemic models on networks
- Large-scale properties of clustered networks: implications for disease dynamics
- On analytical approaches to epidemics on networks
Cited in
(21)- On bounding exact models of epidemic spread on networks
- Methods for approximating stochastic evolutionary dynamics on graphs
- The epidemic model based on the approximation for third-order motifs on networks
- Epidemic behaviors in weighted networks with core-periphery structure
- Percolation on complex networks: theory and application
- A stochastic model of contagion with different individual types
- Generalised probability mass function for the final epidemic size of an \textit{SIR} model on a line of triangles network
- Exact equations for SIR epidemics on tree graphs
- Exact solutions and bounds for network SIR and SEIR models using a rooted-tree approximation
- Complete hierarchies of SIR models on arbitrary networks with exact and approximate moment closure
- Some aspects of the Markovian SIRS epidemic on networks and its mean‐field approximation
- Nonlinear consensus on networks: equilibria, effective resistance, and trees of motifs
- Exact analytical expressions for the final epidemic size of an sir model on small networks
- Feasibility assessments of a dynamical approach to compartmental modelling on graphs: scaling limits and performance analysis
- Modeling and pricing cyber insurance. Idiosyncratic, systematic, and systemic risks
- Spreading of infection on temporal networks: an edge-centered, contact-based perspective
- Monotone convergence of spreading processes on networks
- Funnel theorems for spreading on networks
- Exact and approximate moment closures for non-Markovian network epidemics
- Improving pairwise approximations for network models with susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics
- Beyond clustering: mean-field dynamics on networks with arbitrary subgraph composition
This page was built for publication: Exact deterministic representation of Markovian SIR epidemics on networks with and without loops
Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2512941)
