Statistical demography and forecasting.
Statistics and demography share important common roots, yet as academic disciplines they have grown apart. Both, statistics and demography are necessary ingredients in any serious analysis of the sustainability of pension or health care systems in the aging societies, in the assessment of potential inequities of formula-based allocations to local governments, in the estimation of the size of elusive populations such as drug users, in the investigation of the consequences of social ills such as unemployment, and so forth. This book was written to bring together much of the basic statistical theory and methodology for estimating and forecasting population growth and its components of births, deaths and migration. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision making. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the United States. For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists and professionals in related fields, the book presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. To facilitate its classroom use, exercises are included. Over half of the book is readily accessible to undergraduates, but more maturity may be required to benefit fully from the complete text. Knowledge of differential and integral calculus, matrix algebra, basic probability theory and regression analysis is assumed. There are many results that have appeared in journals or working papers only. Some appear here for the first time and make this book, very important and useful.
- Sustainability of a pay-as-you-go pension system by dynamic immigration control
- Discussion: emergence of the concept of the basic reproduction number from mathematical demography
- Are values reported using quantities and prices in consumption expenditure data?
- Forecasting functional time series
- Bayesian population projections for the united nations
- The effective reproduction number as a prelude to statistical estimation of time-dependent epidemic trends
- Integrated Modeling of European Migration
- Dynamic demographic analysis
- A Side-by-Side Single Sex Age-Structured Human Population Dynamic Model: Exact Solution and Model Validation
- The analysis of age-specific fertility patterns via logistic models
- A linear model of population dynamics
- A comparison of two legislative approaches to the pay-as-you-go pension system in terms of adequacy. The Italian case
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3963634 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 194145 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 2166304 (Why is no real title available?)
- Assumptions on Fertility in Stochastic Population Forecasts*
- Developing Official Stochastic Population Forecasts at the US Census Bureau
- Statistical methods with applications to demography and life insurance
- Why does ``last week reporting give higher estimates than ``last month?
- Bayesian demographic estimation and forecasting
- Modeling human population death rates: a bi-dimensional stochastic Gompertz model with correlated Wiener processes
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5231391 (Why is no real title available?)
- Stationary status of discrete and continuous age-structured population models
- Forecasting the health of elderly populations
- On life table measures of mortality shocks
- Demography through problems
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