Bayesian population projections for the united nations

DOI10.1214/13-STS419zbMATH Open1332.62428arXiv1405.4708OpenAlexW2088949676WikidataQ34334656 ScholiaQ34334656MaRDI QIDQ254375FDOQ254375

Authors: Adrian E. Raftery, Leontine Alkema, Patrick Gerland 

Publication date: 8 March 2016

Published in: Statistical Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are widely used by international organizations, governments and researchers. Like almost all other population projections, they are produced using the standard deterministic cohort-component projection method and do not yield statements of uncertainty. We describe a Bayesian method for producing probabilistic population projections for most countries which are projections that the United Nations could use. It has at its core Bayesian hierarchical models for the total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth. We illustrate the method and show how it can be extended to address concerns about the UN's current assumptions about the long-term distribution of fertility. The method is implemented in the R packages bayesTFR, bayesLife, bayesPop and bayesDem.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.4708

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zbMATH Keywords

life expectancyBayesian hierarchical modelcohort component projection methoddouble logistic functionLeslie matrixtotal fertility rate

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Point estimation (62F10) Bayesian inference (62F15) Mathematical geography and demography (91D20) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25)

Cites Work

• A Bayesian forecasting model: predicting U.S. male mortality
• A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables.
• Applied mathematical demography
• Statistical demography and forecasting.
• Bayesian Demography: Projecting the Iraqi Kurdish Population, 1977-1990
• Bayesian models and methods in public policy and government settings
• ON THE USE OF MATRICES IN CERTAIN POPULATION MATHEMATICS
• Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear mortality projections

Cited In (11)

• Dynamical analysis of an integrated pest management predator–prey model with weak Allee effect
• Accounting for smoking in forecasting mortality and life expectancy
• Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting
• Conditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate Change
• Probabilistic Population Projections for India with Explicit Consideration of the Education-Fertility Link
• Population Projection of India (2001–2051) Using MCMC Technique in Bayesian Inference
• Use and communication of probabilistic forecasts
• Estimating causes of maternal death in data-sparse contexts
• On the use of historical estimates
• Accounting for uncertainty about past values in probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for most countries
• Bayesian propagation of record linkage uncertainty into population size estimation of human rights violations

Uses Software

• R
• bayesDem
• bayesPop
• bayesLife
• bayesTFR

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