Adrian E. Raftery

Award received Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Paul F. Lazarsfeld Award

Member of Institute of Mathematical Statistics, National Academy of Sciences, American Academy of Arts and Sciences

List of research outcomes

This list is not complete and representing at the moment only items from zbMATH Open and arXiv. We are working on additional sources - please check back here soon!

Publication	Date of Publication	Type
Easily computed marginal likelihoods from posterior simulation using the THAMES estimator Bayesian Analysis	2025-11-17	Paper
Multiple imputation of hierarchical nonlinear time series data with an application to school enrollment data The Annals of Applied Statistics	2025-09-18	Paper
A privacy-preserved and high-utility synthesis strategy for risk-based stratified subgroups of the Canadian scleroderma patient registry data The Annals of Applied Statistics	2025-08-01	Paper
Bayesian Hyperbolic Multidimensional Scaling Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	2025-06-24	Paper
Proposer of the vote of thanks and contribution to the discussion of `The first discussion meeting on statistical aspects of climate change' Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C. Applied Statistics	2025-01-14	Paper
Bayesian reconstruction of two-sex populations by age: estimating sex ratios at birth and sex ratios of mortality Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. Statistics in Society	2025-01-02	Paper
Contour models for physical boundaries enclosing star-shaped and approximately star-shaped polygons Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C. Applied Statistics	2024-11-27	Paper
Bayesian projections of total fertility rate conditional on the United Nations sustainable development goals The Annals of Applied Statistics	2024-04-15	Paper
Interview With Adrian Raftery International Statistical Review	2024-04-05	Paper
mclust	2024-02-23	Software
Model-Based Clustering, Classification, and Density Estimation Using mclust in R	2023-05-02	Paper
Balancing Inferential Integrity and Disclosure Risk Via Model Targeted Masking and Multiple Imputation Journal of the American Statistical Association	2023-03-09	Paper
Estimating the Correlation in Bivariate Normal Data With Known Variances and Small Sample Sizes The American Statistician	2023-02-02	Paper
Probabilistic forecasts of arctic sea ice thickness Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics	2022-08-10	Paper
Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models Econometric Reviews	2022-05-31	Paper
Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models Econometric Reviews	2022-05-31	Paper
Adaptive Incremental Mixture Markov Chain Monte Carlo Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics	2022-03-28	Paper
Probabilistic forecasting of the Arctic sea ice edge with contour modeling The Annals of Applied Statistics	2021-11-15	Paper
Accounting for smoking in forecasting mortality and life expectancy The Annals of Applied Statistics	2021-10-14	Paper
Identifying dynamical time series model parameters from equilibrium samples, with application to gene regulatory networks Statistical Modelling	2020-12-30	Paper
Use and communication of probabilistic forecasts Statistical Analysis and Data Mining: The ASA Data Science Journal	2020-10-14	Paper
Use and communication of probabilistic forecasts Statistical Analysis and Data Mining: The ASA Data Science Journal	2020-10-14	Paper
Accounting for uncertainty about past values in probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for most countries The Annals of Applied Statistics	2020-08-26	Paper
Accounting for uncertainty about past values in probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for most countries The Annals of Applied Statistics	2020-08-26	Paper
Consistency for the tree bootstrap in respondent-driven sampling Biometrika	2020-06-09	Paper
Estimating and forecasting the smoking-attributable mortality fraction for both genders jointly in over 60 countries The Annals of Applied Statistics	2020-05-13	Paper
Estimating and forecasting the smoking-attributable mortality fraction for both genders jointly in over 60 countries The Annals of Applied Statistics	2020-05-13	Paper
Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences	2019-07-03	Paper
Improved initialisation of model-based clustering using Gaussian hierarchical partitions Advances in Data Analysis and Classification. ADAC	2019-06-03	Paper
Improved initialisation of model-based clustering using Gaussian hierarchical partitions Advances in Data Analysis and Classification. ADAC	2019-06-03	Paper
Model-based clustering and classification for data science. With applications in R	2019-05-16	Paper
Estimating large correlation matrices for international migration The Annals of Applied Statistics	2018-11-16	Paper
Estimating large correlation matrices for international migration The Annals of Applied Statistics	2018-11-16	Paper
Estimating the sizes of populations at risk of HIV infection from multiple data sources using a Bayesian hierarchical model Statistics and Its Interface	2018-05-08	Paper
Bayesian additive regression trees using Bayesian model averaging Statistics and Computing	2018-03-08	Paper
Bayesian additive regression trees using Bayesian model averaging Statistics and Computing	2018-03-08	Paper
Model-based clustering with data correction for removing artifacts in gene expression data The Annals of Applied Statistics	2018-02-19	Paper
Model-based clustering with data correction for removing artifacts in gene expression data The Annals of Applied Statistics	2018-02-19	Paper
A posterior probability approach for gene regulatory network inference in genetic perturbation data Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering	2016-10-12	Paper
Bayesian population projections for the united nations Statistical Science	2016-03-08	Paper
Bayesian population projections for the united nations Statistical Science	2016-03-08	Paper
Latent class analysis variable selection Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics	2016-01-15	Paper
Estimating population size using the network scale up method The Annals of Applied Statistics	2016-01-04	Paper
Estimating population size using the network scale up method The Annals of Applied Statistics	2016-01-04	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6458364 (Why is no real title available?)	2015-07-13	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6458364 (Why is no real title available?) (available as arXiv preprint)	2015-07-13	Paper
Paul Deheuvels: mentor, advocate for statistics, and applied statistician Mathematical Statistics and Limit Theorems	2015-06-24	Paper
Letter to the Editor Journal of the American Statistical Association	2015-06-17	Paper
Probabilistic Weather Forecasting for Winter Road Maintenance Journal of the American Statistical Association	2015-06-15	Paper
Reconstructing Past Populations With Uncertainty From Fragmentary Data Journal of the American Statistical Association	2013-04-26	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6114089 (Why is no real title available?)	2012-12-07	Paper
Dynamic logistic regression and dynamic model averaging for binary classification Biometrics	2012-06-27	Paper
Geostatistical model averaging for locally calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting Journal of the American Statistical Association	2012-03-22	Paper
Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling Biometrics	2011-02-17	Paper
Variable selection and updating in model-based discriminant analysis for high dimensional data with food authenticity applications The Annals of Applied Statistics	2010-06-23	Paper
Bayesian robust transformation and variable selection: A unified approach The Canadian Journal of Statistics	2009-11-18	Paper
Latent class analysis variable selection Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics	2009-07-24	Paper
Bayesian regularization for normal mixture estimation and model-based clustering Journal of Classification	2009-05-08	Paper
Probabilistic quantitative precipitation field forecasting using a two-stage spatial model The Annals of Applied Statistics	2009-02-10	Paper
Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology	2007-10-26	Paper
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation Journal of the American Statistical Association	2007-09-18	Paper
Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding The Annals of Applied Statistics	2007-09-10	Paper
Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding The Annals of Applied Statistics	2007-09-10	Paper
Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting Journal of the American Statistical Association	2007-08-20	Paper
Variable Selection for Model-Based Clustering Journal of the American Statistical Association	2007-08-20	Paper
Quality Control and Robust Estimation for cDNA Microarrays With Replicates Journal of the American Statistical Association	2007-08-20	Paper
Choosing the link function and accounting for link uncertainty in generalized linear models using Bayes factors Statistical Papers	2006-11-14	Paper
Bayesian Robust Inference for Differential Gene Expression in Microarrays with Multiple Samples Biometrics	2006-06-20	Paper
Model-based clustering for image segmentation and large datasets via sampling Journal of Classification	2006-03-22	Paper
Model Evaluation and Spatial Interpolation by Bayesian Combination of Observations with Outputs from Numerical Models Biometrics	2006-01-03	Paper
Bayesian Information Criterion for Censored Survival Models Biometrics	2005-04-19	Paper
Enhanced model-based clustering, density estimation, and discriminant analysis software:\newline MCLUST Journal of Classification	2005-02-11	Paper
Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling and Choice of Dimension Journal of the American Statistical Association	2004-06-10	Paper
Model-Based Clustering, Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation Journal of the American Statistical Association	2004-06-10	Paper
Latent Space Approaches to Social Network Analysis Journal of the American Statistical Association	2004-06-10	Paper
Nearest-Neighbor Variance Estimation (NNVE) Journal of the American Statistical Association	2004-06-10	Paper
Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. (with comments and a rejoinder). Statistical Science	2004-05-27	Paper
The mixture transition distribution model for high-order Markov chains and non-Gaussian time series Statistical Science	2003-07-03	Paper
A note on the Dirichlet process prior in Bayesian nonparametric inference with partial exchangeability Statistics & Probability Letters	2001-01-29	Paper
Eliciting prior information to enhance the predictive performance of bayesian graphical models Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods	2000-06-13	Paper
Nearest-Neighbor Clutter Removal for Estimating Features in Spatial Point Processes	1999-11-28	Paper
Estimating Bowhead Whale Population Size and Rate of Increase from the 1993 Census	1999-11-28	Paper
Inference from a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales	1999-11-08	Paper
How Many Clusters? Which Clustering Method? Answers Via Model-Based Cluster Analysis The Computer Journal	1999-05-11	Paper
Discharge Rates of Medicare Stroke Patients to Skilled Nursing Facilities: Bayesian Logistic Regression With Unobserved Heterogeneity	1999-04-28	Paper
Detecting Features in Spatial Point Processes with Clutter via Model-Based Clustering	1999-02-22	Paper
Bayesian Model Averaging in Proportional Hazard Models: Assessing the Risk of a Stroke Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics	1999-01-10	Paper
Estimating Bayes Factors via Posterior Simulation With the Laplace-Metropolis Estimator Journal of the American Statistical Association	1998-06-11	Paper
Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models	1998-01-07	Paper
Modeling Flat Stretches, Bursts, and Outliers in Time Series Using Mixture Transition Distribution Models Journal of the American Statistical Association	1997-12-14	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1031819 (Why is no real title available?)	1997-12-03	Paper
Event history modeling of world fertility survey data∗ Mathematical Population Studies	1997-09-28	Paper
Robust Bayesian Model Selection for Autoregressive Processes With Additive Outliers	1997-09-18	Paper
Approximate Bayes factors and accounting for model uncertainty in generalised linear models Biometrika	1997-06-22	Paper
Local Adaptive Importance Sampling for Multivariate Densities With Strong Nonlinear Relationships	1997-04-17	Paper
A method for simultaneous variable selection and outlier identification in linear regression Computational Statistics and Data Analysis	1997-02-27	Paper
Computing Bayes Factors by Combining Simulation and Asymptotic Approximations	1997-01-01	Paper
Bayes Factors	1996-10-03	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 849926 (Why is no real title available?)	1996-09-01	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 849929 (Why is no real title available?)	1996-07-23	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 802829 (Why is no real title available?)	1995-12-19	Paper
Analysis of Agricultural Field Trials in the Presence of Outliers and Fertility Jumps Biometrics	1995-09-11	Paper
Model Selection and Accounting for Model Uncertainty in Graphical Models Using Occam's Window	1995-02-23	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 509150 (Why is no real title available?)	1994-06-02	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 472985 (Why is no real title available?)	1994-03-07	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 472924 (Why is no real title available?)	1994-02-02	Paper
Model-Based Gaussian and Non-Gaussian Clustering Biometrics	1994-01-06	Paper
Inference for the binomial <i>N</i> parameter: A hierarchical Bayes approach Biometrika	1988-01-01	Paper
Inference and Prediction for a General Order Statistic Model With Unknown Population Size	1987-01-01	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4074232 (Why is no real title available?)	1986-01-01	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4058639 (Why is no real title available?)	1986-01-01	Paper
Asymptotic inference for a change-point Poisson process The Annals of Statistics	1986-01-01	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3954111 (Why is no real title available?)	1985-01-01	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4001174 (Why is no real title available?)	1985-01-01	Paper
A continuous multivariate exponential distribution Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods	1984-01-01	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3768821 (Why is no real title available?)	1982-01-01	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3679006 (Why is no real title available?)	1980-01-01	Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3669512 (Why is no real title available?)	1979-01-01	Paper

Research outcomes over time

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